Miguel Rojas has been a consistent under performer in home total bases props, hitting just 30.8% overs with a brutal -0.7 differential from the line. The Dodgers shortstop is currently riding a six-game under streak at home, generating +32.2% ROI on under bets.
Expert Analysis
Miguel Rojas's home total bases struggles reflect the reality of his role in the Dodgers' loaded lineup. Averaging just 1.54 total bases against a 2.27 line creates a massive 0.73-base gap that's difficult to overcome through variance alone. The 30.8% over rate across 13 home games suggests this isn't random cold luck but a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and Rojas's actual production. His current six-game under streak at home indicates the trend has intensified recently. The veteran shortstop's contact-oriented approach limits his ceiling - he's not generating the extra-base hits needed to consistently clear inflated lines. Home cooking hasn't helped Rojas find his power stroke, and the Dodgers' deep lineup often limits his opportunities in high-leverage spots. The -41.3% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overestimating his offensive ceiling. With such a significant sample showing persistent underperformance, this appears to be a market inefficiency rather than temporary regression. The consistency of the under performance across different game situations suggests the line-setting process hasn't properly adjusted to Rojas's limited power profile in his current role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.73-base average deficit and 30.8% over rate create a clear mathematical edge, while the six-game under streak suggests the trend remains strong. Target games where Rojas faces quality pitching or hits lower in the order. Main risk is a random multi-hit game breaking the pattern, but the sample size and consistency support continued under betting until the market adjusts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Miguel Rojas's Total Bases prop record home games?
Miguel Rojas has gone 4-9-0 over/under on total bases props in home games, hitting just 30.8% overs. He's averaging 1.54 total bases against a typical line of 2.27, creating a significant 0.73-base deficit that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Miguel Rojas Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Miguel Rojas total bases at home. The 30.8% over rate and -0.7 average differential create a clear mathematical edge. His current six-game under streak and +32.2% under ROI support this approach until the market adjusts.
What's Miguel Rojas's average Total Bases home games?
Miguel Rojas averages 1.54 total bases in home games, significantly below the typical 2.27 line. This 0.73-base deficit explains his poor 30.8% over rate and creates consistent value on under bets for sharp bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Miguel Rojas total bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching or hits in the bottom third of the Dodgers order. His contact-oriented approach struggles most against premium arms and in lower-leverage lineup spots.