Miguel Amaya's home run under has been the most reliable bet in baseball, hitting in 67 of 72 games (93.1% success rate) with an extraordinary +77.7% ROI. The Cubs catcher averages just 0.07 home runs per game against a typical 0.5 line, creating massive value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Miguel Amaya represents the rare prop where the market hasn't properly adjusted to reality. His 6.9% over rate across 72 games isn't a small sample fluke—it reflects his fundamental profile as a defense-first catcher with minimal power upside. Amaya's 0.07 home runs per game average creates a staggering -0.46 differential against standard 0.5 lines, suggesting books are pricing him based on positional assumptions rather than actual production. The 20-game under streak and career-long 34-game under streak demonstrate this isn't variance—it's who Amaya is as a hitter. His role as a backup catcher means limited at-bats against weaker pitching, while his swing profile lacks the launch angle and exit velocity needed for consistent power output. The -86.7% over ROI shows how dramatically the market has mispriced this prop, while the +77.7% under ROI represents generational value. Even accounting for potential lineup changes or development, Amaya's age and established approach make dramatic power improvement unlikely. The consistency of this trend across different Cubs lineups, opposing pitchers, and game situations suggests structural factors rather than temporary circumstances drive these results.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Miguel Amaya's home run under represents elite value with a 93.1% hit rate and +77.7% ROI over 72 games. His 0.07 average creates massive separation from 0.5 lines, while his defensive-focused role and swing profile make power breakouts extremely unlikely. Bet the under in any situation until books properly adjust pricing to reflect his actual production level.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Miguel Amaya's Home Runs prop record all games?
Miguel Amaya has gone 5-67-0 on home run overs across 72 games, hitting the under in 93.1% of contests. His exceptional under rate of 67 hits in 72 games represents one of the most reliable prop trends in baseball.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Miguel Amaya Home Runs all games?
Bet the UNDER on Miguel Amaya home runs with high confidence. His 93.1% under rate and +77.7% ROI over 72 games, combined with a 0.07 average against 0.5 lines, creates exceptional value on unders.
What's Miguel Amaya's average Home Runs all games?
Miguel Amaya averages 0.07 home runs per game compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.46 differential. This gap between his actual production and market pricing drives the exceptional under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Miguel Amaya home run unders in any situation until books adjust pricing. His consistent profile as a defense-first catcher means the under provides value regardless of matchup, lineup position, or game circumstances.