Miguel Amaya has been a disaster for over bettors in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs with a brutal -61.8% ROI. His 0.6 hits per game average sits 0.7 below the typical 1.3 line, creating consistent under value.
Expert Analysis
Miguel Amaya's offensive struggles over his last 10 games represent a clear market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. The Cubs catcher is averaging just 0.6 hits per game against lines typically set around 1.3, creating a massive 0.7 differential that has translated into an 8-2 under record. This isn't a small sample fluke - Amaya has shown a concerning 4-game under streak within this span, suggesting fundamental issues at the plate rather than temporary bad luck. The 52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates the market has been slow to adjust to his declining form. Catchers often face unique challenges with their hitting due to the physical demands of their position, and Amaya appears to be experiencing exactly that wear-down effect. His current stretch shows none of the variance you'd expect from random distribution - this is systematic underperformance. The persistence of this trend, combined with the market's apparent reluctance to properly price his props lower, creates an exploitable edge. While regression is always possible in baseball, Amaya's recent form suggests his current hitting line remains inflated relative to his actual production level.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Miguel Amaya's hits props offer exceptional under value based on his recent 0.6 average against 1.3 lines. The 52.7% under ROI and 80% hit rate create a compelling mathematical edge that should persist until books properly adjust. Target unders when his line remains at 1.0 or higher, especially in day games after night games when catcher fatigue peaks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Miguel Amaya's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Miguel Amaya has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his hits props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. This translates to an 8-2 record for under bettors with a strong 52.7% ROI on the under side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Miguel Amaya Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Miguel Amaya's hits props. His 0.6 average against typical 1.3 lines creates exceptional under value, supported by an 80% under hit rate and 52.7% ROI over his last 10 games.
What's Miguel Amaya's average Hits last 10 games?
Miguel Amaya is averaging 0.6 hits per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.7 hits below the typical 1.3 line. This massive differential has created consistent under value for sharp bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Miguel Amaya under bets when his hits line is 1.0 or higher, particularly in day games following night games when catcher fatigue is most pronounced and his offensive struggles tend to be amplified.