Miguel Amaya's home hitting props present a compelling under opportunity, with the catcher going over his hits line just 27.0% of the time across 37 games. His 0.49 average sits 0.7 hits below the typical 1.2 line, generating a robust +39.3% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a hitter struggling in familiar surroundings. Amaya's 0.49 hits per home game average creates substantial value when books consistently set his line around 1.2, requiring him to exceed his typical performance by nearly 150%. This isn't a small sample fluke — across 37 home games spanning over a year, the pattern holds remarkably consistent. Catchers often face unique challenges at home, dealing with increased defensive responsibilities, pitcher management duties, and the mental load of calling games in front of demanding home crowds. Amaya's 27.0% over rate suggests these factors significantly impact his offensive output. The -0.7 differential between his average and the standard line indicates books haven't fully adjusted to his home struggles, creating a persistent edge. His longest under streak of seven games demonstrates the trend's staying power, while even his best home stretch maxed out at three consecutive overs. The +39.3% ROI on unders validates this as more than statistical noise — it's a genuine market inefficiency. With limited offensive upside as a defense-first catcher and clear environmental factors working against him, this trend shows little sign of meaningful regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.7-hit gap between Amaya's home average and typical lines creates consistent value, supported by a strong 39.3% ROI on unders. Target spots where the line sits at 1.0 or higher for maximum edge. Main risk is books eventually adjusting lines downward, though the persistent differential suggests this hasn't happened yet.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Miguel Amaya's Hits prop record home games?
Miguel Amaya has gone 10-27-0 over/under on his hits props in home games, hitting the over just 27.0% of the time across 37 games dating back to July 2023.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Miguel Amaya Hits home games?
Bet under on Miguel Amaya's hits props at home. His 0.49 average sits well below typical 1.2 lines, creating consistent value with a proven 39.3% ROI on unders.
What's Miguel Amaya's average Hits home games?
Miguel Amaya averages 0.49 hits per home game, sitting 0.7 hits below the standard 1.2 betting line. This substantial gap creates the foundation for profitable under betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target home games where Amaya's hits line is set at 1.0 or higher for maximum value. Avoid after his rare hot streaks, as regression typically follows quickly.