Michael Siani's total bases prop at home presents a historically lopsided opportunity, going under in 19 of 23 games (82.6%) with an average of just 0.87 total bases against typical 2.2 lines. This -1.3 differential represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball. LEAN UNDER.
Expert Analysis
Siani's home total bases performance reveals a player fundamentally misaligned with standard prop pricing. His 0.87 average at Busch Stadium sits a staggering 60% below typical market lines, creating consistent value on unders. The Cardinals' center fielder has managed just four overs in 23 home contests, with his current eight-game under streak highlighting the persistence of this trend. While sample size concerns exist, the magnitude of underperformance suggests deeper issues than variance. Siani's role as a defensive specialist limits his offensive ceiling, particularly at home where he may face more familiar opposing pitching. The -66.8% ROI on overs versus +57.7% on unders demonstrates how dramatically the market has mispriced his home production. His longest over streak of just two games indicates even temporary hot streaks fail to reach market expectations. The consistency is remarkable – Siani hasn't shown meaningful home/road splits in power production, but his overall offensive limitations become magnified when books set standard total bases lines. Unless his role dramatically changes or he shows sustained improvement in extra-base hit frequency, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Siani's 82.6% under rate at home creates clear value, but the sample size and potential for offensive improvement prevent higher conviction. Target unders when lines sit at 2.0 or higher, as his 0.87 average provides substantial cushion. Main risk is role expansion or a legitimate breakout, but his defensive-first profile suggests continued offensive limitations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Siani's Total Bases prop record home games?
Michael Siani has gone under his total bases prop in 19 of 23 home games (82.6%) during 2024, with just four overs recorded. His home total bases average of 0.87 consistently falls well short of standard market lines around 2.2.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Siani Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Michael Siani's total bases props at home. His 82.6% under rate and 0.87 average versus 2.2 typical lines creates substantial value. Target unders when lines are 2.0 or higher for maximum edge.
What's Michael Siani's average Total Bases home games?
Michael Siani averages 0.87 total bases in home games, sitting 1.3 bases below typical market lines of 2.2. This 60% underperformance creates one of baseball's largest prop betting edges favoring the under.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise when Siani's total bases line sits at 2.0 or higher at home. His defensive-first role and consistent underperformance suggest unders provide value regardless of matchup, with eight consecutive unders demonstrating trend reliability.