Michael Harris II presents one of the most lopsided home run trends in baseball, going over just 5 times in 36 games for a brutal 13.9% over rate. His 0.17 average sits 0.4 home runs below typical lines, creating a massive -73.5% ROI disaster for over bettors. This is a clear systematic under play.
Expert Analysis
Harris's home run futility stems from a fundamental power profile mismatch with betting market expectations. His 0.17 home runs per game average reveals a player whose occasional power bursts create inflated line values that consistently fail to materialize. The -0.4 differential between his production and typical lines indicates oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for his inconsistent power output. This isn't merely a cold streak—it's a systematic overvaluation of a player whose contact-oriented approach prioritizes average and speed over raw power. The 7-game under streak within this sample demonstrates how Harris can go extended periods without threatening the fences. His profile suggests a player who might homer twice in a week then go three weeks without one, making over bets particularly dangerous. The 64.4% ROI on unders reflects sharp money recognizing this discrepancy. Most concerning for over bettors is the persistence—across 36 games spanning nearly the entire season, Harris has shown no ability to consistently reach even modest power expectations, suggesting this isn't variance but his true talent level being mispriced.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Harris's systematic power underperformance creates one of baseball's most reliable under plays. The 13.9% over rate combined with his 0.17 average production makes this a premium fade opportunity whenever his home run line appears inflated above 0.5. Target games where books haven't fully adjusted to his contact-first profile, particularly against quality pitching where his limited power becomes even more pronounced.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Harris II's Home Runs prop record all games?
Michael Harris II has gone 5-31-0 on home run overs across 36 games, producing just a 13.9% over rate. His under record of 31-5-0 represents one of baseball's most lopsided prop trends this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Harris II Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Michael Harris II's home runs with high confidence. His 0.17 average production consistently falls short of typical 0.5+ lines, creating a systematic edge for under bettors with 64.4% ROI.
What's Michael Harris II's average Home Runs all games?
Harris averages 0.17 home runs per game compared to typical lines around 0.5+, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This gap explains why overs hit just 13.9% of the time in his 36-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harris home run unders when facing quality pitching or when lines remain at 0.5+. His contact-first profile makes him particularly vulnerable against strong arms, while books often fail to adjust lines low enough.