Michael Harris II has been a brutal home hits prop for bettors, going over just 27.8% of the time (5-13-0) while averaging only 0.61 hits against a 1.39 line. The under has delivered a massive +37.9% ROI with Harris currently on a six-game under streak. This is a clear fade-at-home situation.
Expert Analysis
Michael Harris II's home hitting struggles represent one of the season's most reliable prop trends, with the numbers painting a clear picture of a player who simply doesn't perform to expectations at Truist Park. Averaging just 0.61 hits per home game against a 1.39 line creates a staggering -0.8 differential that has persisted across 18 games from April through September. The 27.8% over rate isn't just poor luck—it reflects genuine home performance issues that could stem from pressing in front of the home crowd, different sight lines, or mechanical adjustments that haven't clicked at home. Harris's current six-game under streak matches his season-long pattern, suggesting this isn't a temporary slump but a consistent home disadvantage. The -47.0% ROI on overs tells the story of books that haven't fully adjusted to Harris's home struggles, creating ongoing value on the under. With no meaningful splits showing home improvement in specific situations, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression. The sample size of 18 games provides statistical significance, and the consistency of the underperformance across the entire season suggests fundamental issues rather than random variance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Michael Harris II's home hits props offer exceptional value with a 72.2% under hit rate and +37.9% ROI. The -0.8 differential between his 0.61 average and typical 1.39 lines creates a significant edge that books haven't corrected. Target this under in all home games, especially when the line sits at 1.5 hits. The main risk is potential lineup changes or weather delays affecting sample integrity, but the trend's consistency across six months makes regression unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Harris II's Hits prop record home games?
Michael Harris II has gone 5-13-0 on hits props in home games, hitting the over just 27.8% of the time. He's averaging only 0.61 hits per home game against lines typically set around 1.39, creating a significant -0.8 differential that has been consistent all season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Harris II Hits home games?
Bet the under on Michael Harris II's hits props in home games. The 72.2% under hit rate and +37.9% ROI make this one of the season's most reliable prop bets. His consistent home underperformance creates ongoing value that books haven't adequately adjusted for.
What's Michael Harris II's average Hits home games?
Michael Harris II averages 0.61 hits in home games, which is 0.8 hits below the typical 1.39 line. This massive differential has created consistent value on the under, with Harris failing to reach expectations in nearly three-quarters of his home appearances this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Michael Harris II under on hits props in every home game, particularly when the line is set at 1.5 hits. The trend has been consistent across different months and situations, making any home game an ideal spot to back the under with high confidence.