Michael Busch's total bases prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity with just 11 overs in 46 games (23.9% rate). His 1.13 average sits 1.1 bases below the typical 2.24 line, generating a robust 45.3% ROI on unders. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Busch's home struggles create a systematic edge that extends beyond typical rookie inconsistency. His 1.13 total bases average at Wrigley Field represents a massive 49% shortfall versus the standard line, indicating either persistent overvaluation by oddsmakers or genuine environmental factors suppressing his power. The 11-game under streak within this sample suggests more than random variance—Busch appears genuinely challenged by home conditions, whether due to Wrigley's dimensions, wind patterns, or psychological factors. With only 23.9% of games clearing the line, we're looking at a player whose home power output is systematically mispriced. The lack of meaningful over streaks (longest just 2 games) reinforces that his occasional multi-base games are outliers rather than signs of emerging consistency. This trend has persisted across a full season's worth of home games, making regression arguments weaker. The -54.4% ROI on overs tells the story—betting against Busch's power at home has been consistently profitable, and the underlying factors appear structural rather than temporary.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Busch's home total bases props offer solid value on the under, backed by a 45.3% ROI and systematic underperformance. The 1.1-base deficit to his typical line creates recurring opportunities when books fail to adjust adequately. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or favorable matchups against struggling pitching, but his consistent home struggles make this a reliable fade spot.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 6.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Busch's Total Bases prop record home games?
Busch has gone 11-35-0 on his total bases over/under at home, hitting just 23.9% of overs across 46 games. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records for any regular player in 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Busch Total Bases home games?
Bet the under on Busch's total bases at home games. His 45.3% ROI on unders and consistent 1.1-base shortfall to the line make this a profitable long-term strategy with solid edge.
What's Michael Busch's average Total Bases home games?
Busch averages 1.13 total bases in home games compared to his typical 2.24 line, creating a significant 1.1-base deficit. This 49% shortfall represents systematic underperformance rather than minor variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Busch total bases unders in any home game, especially when lines remain at 2+ bases. His consistent home struggles make this prop profitable regardless of opponent, with strongest edge when oddsmakers haven't adjusted downward.