Michael Busch's home run prop at Wrigley Field presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 94% of his home games with a devastating -88% ROI on overs. The Cubs third baseman averages just 0.06 home runs per home game against a typical 0.5 line. This is an elite under play with extreme historical backing.
Expert Analysis
Michael Busch's home run futility at Wrigley Field represents a perfect storm of player limitations and environmental factors. His 3-46 over-under record at home isn't just bad luck—it reflects fundamental swing mechanics poorly suited to his home ballpark. Busch's 0.06 home run average per home game sits a staggering 0.44 below the standard 0.5 line, indicating books are still overvaluing his power potential in Chicago. The 27-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency in his inability to clear the fence at Wrigley. While Wrigley Field can play as a hitter's park depending on wind conditions, Busch has proven immune to these favorable factors. His swing profile likely generates insufficient launch angle and exit velocity to consistently threaten the ivy-covered walls. The -88.3% ROI on overs tells the complete story—betting Busch to homer at home has been financial suicide. With 49 games providing robust sample size, this isn't a small-sample aberration but a genuine skill-environment mismatch. The trend's persistence through varying weather conditions, opposing pitchers, and lineup positions suggests deep-rooted mechanical issues rather than temporary struggles. Regression toward league averages seems unlikely given the underlying swing characteristics that created this extreme pattern.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Michael Busch's home run under at Wrigley Field ranks among the most reliable props in baseball, backed by a 94% success rate across 49 games. The ideal conditions are simply any home game where his line sits at 0.5, as his 0.06 average creates massive value. The primary risk is an eventual breakout game, but his 27-game under streak and underlying swing metrics suggest continued futility is more likely than sudden power surge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Busch's Home Runs prop record home games?
Michael Busch has gone 3-46 on his home runs over/under at home games, hitting just 6.1% of overs with a brutal -88.3% ROI. He's averaged only 0.06 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a -0.4 differential that favors unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Busch Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Michael Busch's home runs at Wrigley Field with high confidence. His 94% under rate across 49 home games, combined with a 0.06 average against 0.5 lines, makes this one of baseball's most reliable under plays.
What's Michael Busch's average Home Runs home games?
Michael Busch averages 0.06 home runs per home game, sitting 0.44 below the standard 0.5 line. This massive differential explains his 3-46 over-under record and represents exceptional value for under bettors at Wrigley Field.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Michael Busch's home runs under whenever he's playing at Wrigley Field with a 0.5 line. His 27-game under streak and consistent power struggles at home make any Cubs home game an ideal spot for this prop.