Michael Busch has been a disaster for over bettors, hitting just 20% (2-8-0) in his last 10 games while averaging 0.7 hits against a 1.3 line. Currently riding a three-game under streak with the longest under streak reaching five games. This presents a strong under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Michael Busch's hitting struggles over his last 10 games represent a significant departure from expectations, with his 0.7 hits per game falling a full 0.6 hits below the typical 1.3 line. This isn't just bad luck – it's a systematic breakdown in offensive production that has created tremendous value on the under side. The 52.7% ROI on under bets demonstrates how the market has been slow to adjust to Busch's declining form, particularly given his current three-game under streak. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the failure rate. Busch managed just two games above his hits line in this 10-game sample, with his longest over streak being a measly single game compared to a five-game under streak. This suggests a fundamental issue with his approach at the plate rather than temporary variance. The Cubs' third baseman appears to be pressing, and when hitters struggle this consistently, the market often overcompensates by setting lines based on season-long averages rather than current form. Until Busch shows signs of breaking out of this funk with multiple consecutive games over his line, the under remains the superior play with books likely still pricing in his earlier season production.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Busch's 20% over rate and massive -0.6 differential to the line represents one of the strongest under trends in baseball props. The 52.7% ROI on unders combined with his current three-game streak makes this a premium fade opportunity. Main risk is regression to the mean, but his consistent struggles suggest this is more than variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Michael Busch's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Michael Busch has gone over his hits prop just twice in his last 10 games (2-8-0 record, 20% over rate). He's averaging only 0.7 hits per game, significantly below the typical 1.3 line, creating a -0.6 differential that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Michael Busch Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Michael Busch hits props with high confidence. His 20% over rate and 52.7% ROI on unders make this one of the strongest fade opportunities available. He's currently on a three-game under streak with no signs of breaking out.
What's Michael Busch's average Hits last 10 games?
Michael Busch is averaging 0.7 hits per game over his last 10 contests, which is 0.6 hits below the typical 1.3 line. This massive differential explains why under bets have generated a 52.7% ROI while overs have lost 61.8%.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Michael Busch hits unders when he's in extended slumps like his current three-game streak. His longest over streak was just one game compared to a five-game under streak, indicating the market is slow to adjust to his declining form.