Max Schuemann's home run prop presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 37 of 38 games (97.4% under rate) with an average of just 0.03 home runs against typical 0.5 lines. This utility infielder's complete lack of power makes the under a premium play.
Expert Analysis
Schuemann's home run futility stems from his fundamental profile as a contact-oriented utility player rather than a power threat. His 0.03 home runs per game average represents an extreme outlier even among light-hitting middle infielders, suggesting this isn't just a cold streak but reflects his actual skill set. The Athletics likely acquired Schuemann for his defensive versatility and ability to make contact, not for offensive production. His 14-game current under streak and historic 23-game under streak demonstrate remarkable consistency in failing to clear even the lowest home run bars. The -95.0% ROI on overs tells the complete story - books have struggled to set this line low enough to create competitive action. While regression toward league norms typically concerns analysts, Schuemann's profile suggests his power deficit is structural rather than situational. His approach likely prioritizes putting the ball in play over driving it with authority, making him fundamentally unsuited for home run production. The 2.6% over rate across 38 games provides an enormous sample size that reinforces this assessment. Even accounting for potential small-sample noise, the consistency of this trend across different matchups, ballparks, and game situations indicates genuine predictive value rather than random variance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Schuemann's 97.4% under rate across 38 games reflects his genuine lack of power rather than temporary struggles. His contact-oriented approach and utility role make him structurally unlikely to produce home runs consistently. The ideal conditions are simply any game where his home run line appears, as his profile remains constant regardless of matchup. The main risk is an eventual fluky connection, but his track record suggests even that poses minimal threat to under bettors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Max Schuemann's Home Runs prop record all games?
Max Schuemann's home run prop record stands at an remarkable 1-37-0 over/under across 38 games, representing a 97.4% under rate. He averages just 0.03 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a -0.52 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Max Schuemann Home Runs all games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Schuemann's 97.4% under rate across 38 games reflects his genuine lack of power rather than bad luck. His utility player profile and contact-oriented approach make home run production extremely unlikely regardless of matchup or situation.
What's Max Schuemann's average Home Runs all games?
Max Schuemann averages 0.03 home runs per game, which creates a massive -0.52 differential against typical 0.5 lines. This extreme gap between his actual production and betting expectations represents one of the most lopsided prop trends in baseball.
How reliable is this trend?
Any game Schuemann plays offers value on the under, as his power deficit remains constant across all conditions. His 14-game current under streak and structural limitations as a contact-oriented utility player make timing less relevant than simply identifying when his prop is available.