Mauricio Dubón's home run props present one of the sharpest under opportunities in baseball, with a devastating 3-49-0 record (5.8% over rate) across 52 games. His 0.06 average sits 0.44 runs below the typical 0.5 line, generating +79.9% ROI on unders. This is a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Mauricio Dubón's home run production represents a fundamental mismatch between market pricing and player capability. His 0.06 home run average across 52 games reveals a contact-oriented utility player whose skill set directly contradicts power expectations. The 5.8% over rate isn't just poor—it's historically bad, suggesting books consistently overvalue his pop potential. Dubón's profile as a versatile defender who maximizes value through contact and speed creates a ceiling on power output that markets fail to properly discount. The 14-game under streak, extending from a season-high 19-game drought, demonstrates consistency in this limitation rather than temporary slump. His longest over streak of just one game confirms this isn't variance—it's player identity. The -89.0% over ROI represents systematic mispricing, likely driven by casual bettors overestimating power from any major league regular. Dubón's role as a utility player means inconsistent playing time and situational usage that further caps accumulation opportunities. The lack of meaningful splits suggests this trend transcends matchups, park factors, or situational variables. This represents a pure skills-based edge where the market consistently overestimates a player's fundamental power ceiling.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Mauricio Dubón's home run props offer elite under value with his 0.06 average sitting nearly half a run below standard lines. The 5.8% over rate across 52 games represents systematic market mispricing of a contact-oriented utility player. Target this prop in all situations, as his skill set creates a hard ceiling on power production. The primary risk is reduced playing time affecting sample size rather than actual home run production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mauricio Dubón's Home Runs prop record all games?
Mauricio Dubón's home run prop record stands at 3-49-0 over/under across 52 games, producing just a 5.8% over rate. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in baseball, with 49 unders against only 3 overs since June 2023.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mauricio Dubón Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Mauricio Dubón's home run props with high confidence. His 0.06 average sits 0.44 runs below typical 0.5 lines, creating systematic value. The 5.8% over rate and +79.9% under ROI make this a premium fade opportunity.
What's Mauricio Dubón's average Home Runs all games?
Mauricio Dubón averages 0.06 home runs per game across his 52-game sample, sitting 0.44 runs below the standard 0.5 line. This massive differential of nearly half a home run per game creates consistent under value in the betting market.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Mauricio Dubón home run unders in all situations, as his 5.8% over rate shows no meaningful splits. Target props whenever available, particularly at standard 0.5 lines where his 0.06 average creates maximum edge regardless of opponent or venue.