Matt Wallner has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, going just 1-9-0 on overs with a brutal 0.8 average against a 2.4 line. This 90% under rate with a massive -1.6 differential represents one of the strongest fade opportunities in baseball.
Expert Analysis
Wallner's total bases collapse stems from a perfect storm of struggles that make this trend highly sustainable. His 0.8 average represents a staggering 67% shortfall from the 2.4 line, indicating either severe overvaluation by oddsmakers or a fundamental shift in his offensive capability. The consistency is remarkable - nine unders in ten games suggests this isn't random variance but a genuine decline in power output. His current four-game under streak, part of a longer five-game stretch earlier, demonstrates persistent struggles at the plate. The 10% over rate is so extreme it suggests either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or poor matchup exploitation. What makes this particularly compelling is the sample size approaching statistical significance while maintaining consistency. The -80.9% ROI on overs versus +71.8% on unders creates a massive betting edge. Most concerning for over bettors is the lack of any meaningful hot streak - his longest over run was just one game, indicating no signs of breaking through. This level of sustained underperformance typically persists until either the player is benched, the line adjusts significantly, or underlying issues are addressed.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Wallner's total bases props represent one of the season's most reliable under plays, with nine hits in ten attempts and a devastating -1.6 average differential. The consistency of this trend, combined with no signs of improvement, makes fading his power output a premium strategy. Main risk is dramatic line adjustment, but until then, this remains a high-conviction under play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Matt Wallner's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Wallner has gone 1-9-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10% of over bets. He's averaging 0.8 total bases against lines typically set around 2.4, creating a massive -1.6 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Matt Wallner Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet UNDER on Wallner's total bases props with high confidence. His 90% under rate and -1.6 average differential represent one of baseball's most reliable fade opportunities. The consistency of this trend makes under bets a premium play until the line adjusts significantly.
What's Matt Wallner's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Wallner is averaging just 0.8 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.4. This represents a massive 67% shortfall, indicating either severe line overvaluation or a fundamental decline in his power production capabilities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wallner total bases unders when lines remain inflated above 2.0, especially during his current cold streak. His props offer the best value when oddsmakers haven't adjusted for his sustained power outage, creating consistent under opportunities with high ROI potential.