Matt Olson's total bases prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20.0% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal 2-8 record. The Braves slugger is averaging 1.9 total bases against a 3.5 line, creating a massive -1.6 differential that screams systematic value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Matt Olson's total bases collapse represents one of the most exploitable trends in current MLB props. The first baseman's 1.9 average against a 3.5 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between market perception and recent reality. This isn't just a cold streak—it's a structural shift that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a market stubbornly clinging to Olson's reputation as a power threat while ignoring his current production. Three consecutive unders highlight the consistency of this downturn, with his longest over streak maxing out at just one game. The 80% under rate over 10 games suggests either a mechanical issue, fatigue from the season's grind, or opposing teams successfully neutralizing his approach. Most telling is that this isn't variance—when a hitter consistently falls 1.6 total bases short of expectations, it indicates a fundamental change in performance level. The market's slow adjustment creates a window where the under provides exceptional value, particularly given the sample size validity and the absence of any meaningful over streaks to suggest imminent regression.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Matt Olson's total bases under represents elite value with an 80% hit rate and +52.7% ROI over meaningful sample size. The 1.9 average against 3.5 lines creates consistent profit opportunities, especially with three straight unders showing no signs of immediate regression. Primary risk is a sudden power surge, but the data strongly favors continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Matt Olson's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Matt Olson has gone under his total bases prop in 8 of his last 10 games, posting a 2-8 over/under record for just 20.0% overs. This represents one of the most lopsided trends among qualified hitters.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Matt Olson Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Matt Olson's total bases props. The data strongly supports under bets with an 80% hit rate and +52.7% ROI, while overs have been disastrous at -61.8% ROI over this stretch.
What's Matt Olson's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Matt Olson is averaging 1.9 total bases over his last 10 games against typical lines of 3.5, creating a massive -1.6 differential that consistently favors under bets with remarkable reliability.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Matt Olson total bases unders when lines remain at 3.5 or higher, as the market hasn't fully adjusted to his decreased production. Avoid when facing weaker pitching that might inflate his numbers.