Matt Olson's hits prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 35.2% overs across 54 games, delivering +23.7% ROI on unders. His 0.89 average sits 0.6 hits below typical lines, creating consistent value on the downside with strong mathematical backing.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story about Matt Olson's hitting consistency in 2024. With only 19 overs against 35 unders across the full season sample, Olson consistently fell short of inflated market expectations. His 0.89 hits per game average represents a significant 40% shortfall from the typical 1.48 line, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted to his actual production patterns. The current six-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather part of a broader trend where Olson's power-focused approach often results in fewer total hits despite solid offensive contributions. His tendency to work deep counts and draw walks, while valuable for team offense, actually works against hits props. The 32.8% loss rate on overs indicates sharp money has been consistently fading the inflated lines. Most concerning for over bettors is the persistence of this trend throughout the entire season, showing no meaningful regression toward market expectations. The longest over streak of just three games compared to the current six-game under run demonstrates the market's continued overvaluation of Olson's hit frequency versus his actual contact patterns and approach.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Matt Olson's 35.2% over rate and massive -0.6 differential from market lines creates exceptional under value. The consistent season-long pattern, supported by his patient approach and power-over-contact hitting style, makes this one of the most reliable props in baseball. Risk lies only in potential lineup changes or rest days affecting sample size, but the underlying approach remains unchanged.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Matt Olson's Hits prop record all games?
Matt Olson went 19-35-0 on his hits props across all games in 2024, hitting the over just 35.2% of the time. This represents one of the most consistent under trends among everyday players with significant sample size.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Matt Olson Hits all games?
Bet under on Matt Olson's hits props. The 35.2% over rate and +23.7% under ROI across 54 games creates exceptional value, especially given his power-focused approach that prioritizes walks and extra-base hits over contact frequency.
What's Matt Olson's average Hits all games?
Matt Olson averaged 0.89 hits per game in 2024, sitting 0.6 hits below the typical 1.48 market line. This 40% shortfall represents one of the largest negative differentials among qualified first basemen this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Matt Olson hits unders consistently regardless of matchup, as his approach-driven results show remarkable consistency. The trend persists across all game situations, making it one of the most reliable season-long props available.