Mark Vientos has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, going under in 60% of opportunities with a brutal -1.2 differential from the typical 2.7 line. His 1.5 average total bases reflects a player struggling with both contact and power, making unders the clear lean.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a concerning picture for Vientos backers. His 1.5 total bases average sits a full 1.2 bases below the standard 2.7 line, indicating either overinflated market expectations or a genuine decline in offensive production. The 4-6 over/under record translates to a devastating -23.6% ROI on overs while rewarding under bettors with a solid +14.6% return. What's particularly telling is the streak pattern - Vientos managed just one three-game over streak during this span, followed by a four-game under drought that highlights his inconsistency. The current single-game under streak suggests he's reverting to his recent norm of disappointing performances. This isn't just bad luck; it's a systematic failure to reach inflated expectations. Whether it's poor plate discipline, decreased power, or simply facing tougher pitching, Vientos has consistently fallen short of the total bases threshold that oddsmakers continue to set. The persistence of this trend across 10 games provides enough sample size to suggest this is more than variance - it's a genuine edge for sharp under bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Vientos's -1.2 differential from the typical line represents a significant market inefficiency that's persisted across 10 games. The 60% under rate combined with positive ROI suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his recent struggles. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as his 1.5 average makes those numbers nearly impossible to reach consistently.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mark Vientos's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Mark Vientos has gone 4-6 over/under on his Total Bases prop in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. This translates to unders cashing 60% of opportunities with a +14.6% ROI for disciplined bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mark Vientos Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Mark Vientos Total Bases props. His 1.5 average sits 1.2 bases below typical lines, creating a sustainable edge. The 60% under rate and positive ROI make this a clear lean against inflated market expectations.
What's Mark Vientos's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Mark Vientos is averaging just 1.5 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the typical 2.7 line. This -1.2 differential represents a massive gap that suggests either declining performance or overinflated oddsmaker expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mark Vientos Total Bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher. His recent struggles make these elevated numbers nearly impossible to reach consistently, especially given his current 1.5 average performance level.