Mark Vientos has been a total bases disaster at Citi Field, going just 5-19 over in 24 home games with a brutal -1.6 differential versus the typical 3.21 line. The 20.8% over rate and -60.2% over ROI make this one of the season's most reliable under trends.
Expert Analysis
Mark Vientos's home total bases struggles stem from Citi Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions and his approach against familiar National League East arms. The 1.62 average versus a 3.21 line represents a massive 49.5% shortfall, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home/road split. This isn't just bad luck—Vientos has managed multiple bases in only 20.8% of his Citi Field appearances, indicating a fundamental issue with his power output in familiar surroundings. The trend shows remarkable consistency with a 10-game under streak as his longest run, while never sustaining more than one consecutive over. His approach appears more tentative at home, possibly pressing in front of the home crowd or struggling with the deeper dimensions that favor gap shots over home runs. The -60.2% over ROI demonstrates how dramatically the market has mispriced this prop, while the corresponding +51.1% under ROI validates the betting edge. Without meaningful split data showing improvement in specific matchups, this appears to be a persistent home venue issue rather than a temporary slump that's likely to regress.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Mark Vientos's total bases prop at Citi Field represents one of the season's most exploitable trends, with his 1.62 average creating substantial value against typical 3+ lines. Target this under in all home games, especially against quality pitching staffs. The main risk is a breakout performance that could signal trend reversal, but the sample size and consistency suggest continued value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mark Vientos's Total Bases prop record home games?
Mark Vientos has gone 5-19 over on total bases props in 24 home games, producing just a 20.8% over rate. His average of 1.62 total bases falls dramatically short of the typical 3.21 line, creating a -1.6 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mark Vientos Total Bases home games?
Bet the UNDER on Mark Vientos total bases at home games. The 5-19 over record and +51.1% under ROI make this one of the season's most reliable under trends, with his 1.62 average well below standard lines.
What's Mark Vientos's average Total Bases home games?
Mark Vientos averages just 1.62 total bases in home games compared to typical lines around 3.21. This -1.6 differential represents a 49.5% shortfall, indicating significant value on under bets at Citi Field throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mark Vientos total bases unders in every home game, particularly against quality pitching staffs. His Citi Field struggles appear venue-specific and persistent, making any home appearance a potential under opportunity regardless of matchup context.