Mark Vientos has been a consistent under performer in total bases props, hitting the over just 30.8% of the time across 52 games with a devastating -1.1 differential between his 1.71 average and 2.77 typical line. This represents a clear systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of market inefficiency around Mark Vientos total bases props. His 16-36 over/under record reflects a fundamental disconnect between expectations and reality, with oddsmakers consistently overestimating his offensive output. The 1.71 average against a 2.77 line represents a massive 38% gap that has persisted across a meaningful 52-game sample spanning from late 2023 through September 2024. This isn't a small sample fluke—it's a systematic pattern that suggests either Vientos struggles with consistency or the market hasn't properly adjusted to his true offensive ceiling. The 13-game under streak demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while even his longest over streak reached just three games. The +32.2% ROI on unders versus -41.3% on overs quantifies the edge perfectly. What makes this particularly compelling is the lack of obvious regression catalysts. Young players can improve, but Vientos has shown enough games to establish a baseline, and his power-speed profile appears fairly defined. The market's continued overvaluation likely stems from his prospect pedigree and occasional power flashes that don't translate to consistent multi-base production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.06-base differential represents genuine value, but the 52-game sample demands respect for potential regression. Target Vientos total bases unders when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, where the historical edge is strongest. The primary risk is a breakout performance stretch that could quickly erode this advantage, but current data supports continued under betting until the market corrects.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mark Vientos's Total Bases prop record all games?
Mark Vientos has gone over his total bases prop just 16 times in 52 games (30.8% rate) with 36 unders. His current streak stands at one consecutive under, following a season-long pattern of consistent under performance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mark Vientos Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Mark Vientos total bases props. The data shows a clear 1.06-base differential favoring unders with a 32.2% ROI, making this one of the stronger systematic edges in player props.
What's Mark Vientos's average Total Bases all games?
Mark Vientos averages 1.71 total bases per game compared to his typical 2.77 line, creating a substantial 1.06-base gap. This 38% differential has remained consistent across his 52-game sample size.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mark Vientos total bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, where his historical underperformance is most pronounced. Avoid betting after extended hot streaks of three-plus games over.