Mark Vientos presents one of the most lopsided home run trends in baseball, going just 5-22 on overs in away games with an 18.5% success rate. His 0.19 average sits 0.3 homers below the typical 0.5 line, creating a massive 64.7% ROI loss on overs while unders profit at 55.6%. This is a strong lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Vientos's road struggles with the long ball. His 0.19 home run average in away games represents a significant power outage, falling 62% below the standard 0.5 line that books consistently offer. This isn't a small sample fluke – 27 games provides sufficient data to identify a legitimate trend, especially with such extreme results. The 18.5% over rate indicates Vientos faces systematic challenges hitting for power on the road that go beyond normal variance. Road environments typically suppress offense through unfamiliar backdrops, different wind patterns, and hostile crowds, but Vientos appears particularly susceptible to these factors. His current two-game under streak extends a pattern where he's recorded streaks as long as 10 consecutive unders, suggesting the power struggles compound over time. The 64.7% ROI loss on overs represents one of the most profitable fade opportunities in player props, while the corresponding 55.6% profit on unders validates the sustainability of this trend. Without splits data showing specific ballpark vulnerabilities, the broad-based road power shortage appears to stem from approach or comfort issues rather than matchup-specific factors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Vientos's road power numbers are too stark to ignore, with the 0.19 average creating substantial value against 0.5 lines. The ideal conditions are neutral or pitcher-friendly road venues where his power deficit becomes even more pronounced. The main risk is regression to league norms, but 27 games suggests this represents a genuine skill-based trend rather than temporary bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mark Vientos's Home Runs prop record away games?
Mark Vientos has gone 5-22 on home run overs in away games, hitting just 18.5% of his overs with a brutal -64.7% ROI. He's averaged only 0.19 home runs per road game across 27 contests, well below the typical 0.5 line books offer.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mark Vientos Home Runs away games?
Bet under on Mark Vientos home run props in away games. His 18.5% over rate and 0.19 average create massive value on unders, which have generated 55.6% ROI. This trend spans 27 games and shows no signs of regression.
What's Mark Vientos's average Home Runs away games?
Vientos averages 0.19 home runs in away games, sitting 0.3 homers below the standard 0.5 line. This 62% deficit below the betting number represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations in player props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Vientos home run unders in road games at pitcher-friendly ballparks or against quality opposing pitching. His power struggles are magnified in challenging environments, making neutral-to-unfavorable conditions ideal for maximizing the edge on under bets.