Mark Vientos presents one of the most lopsided home run prop trends in baseball, going over just 8 times in 52 games (15.4% hit rate) with a massive -0.4 differential between his 0.15 average and typical 0.52 line. This under trend shows exceptional persistence with a 21-game under streak. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Mark Vientos's home run production relative to market expectations. His 0.15 home runs per game average sits drastically below the standard 0.52 line, creating a -0.4 differential that represents one of the largest mismatches between performance and pricing in the prop market. This isn't a small sample anomaly—across 52 games spanning from late 2023 through the 2024 season, Vientos has demonstrated remarkably consistent inability to reach inflated home run totals. The 21-game under streak highlights this persistence, suggesting the market has been slow to adjust to his actual power output versus perceived potential. His 15.4% over rate translates to hitting the over roughly once every 6-7 games, making this among the most reliable under trends available. The +61.5% ROI on unders validates the mathematical edge, while the -70.6% over ROI shows the market's consistent overvaluation. This pattern suggests either the books are pricing in prospect pedigree rather than MLB performance, or they're banking on casual bettors overestimating his power based on physical tools rather than actual production metrics.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The mathematical edge is undeniable—Vientos's 0.15 average creates substantial value against 0.52 lines, supported by an 84.6% under hit rate and +61.5% ROI. The 21-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency in failing to reach inflated totals. Primary risk is potential lineup changes or park factors that could unlock dormant power, but the sample size suggests this reflects his current ceiling rather than temporary struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mark Vientos's Home Runs prop record all games?
Mark Vientos's home run prop record stands at 8-44-0 over/under across 52 games, translating to just a 15.4% over rate. This represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball props, with unders hitting at an 84.6% clip.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mark Vientos Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Mark Vientos home run props. His 0.15 average sits far below typical 0.52 lines, creating a -0.4 differential with an 84.6% under success rate and +61.5% ROI. The math strongly favors the under.
What's Mark Vientos's average Home Runs all games?
Mark Vientos averages 0.15 home runs per game across his 52-game sample. This sits dramatically below the standard 0.52 line, creating a -0.4 differential that represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Vientos home run unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, which creates maximum value given his 0.15 average. The trend shows consistency across all conditions, making any standard pricing an opportunity for under bets.