Marcus Semien's home run production has cratered over his last 10 games, hitting just 2 homers while going 2-8-0 on over bets. With a brutal 0.2 average against a 0.6 line and -61.8% ROI on overs, the under presents significant value.
Expert Analysis
Marcus Semien's power outage over this 10-game stretch represents a dramatic departure from his season-long production, creating a compelling betting opportunity. The veteran second baseman has managed just 2 home runs while averaging 0.2 per game against a typical 0.6 line, producing an alarming -0.4 differential that suggests books haven't adjusted quickly enough to his declining power metrics. The 20.0% over rate tells the story of a hitter whose swing mechanics or approach may have shifted, possibly due to fatigue in the season's final stretch or mechanical adjustments that prioritize contact over power. What makes this trend particularly bankable is the consistency of the struggle – Semien endured a brutal 7-game stretch without going over, indicating this isn't merely variance but a fundamental shift in his offensive profile. The +52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as recreational bettors likely continue backing the name recognition of a player who hit 25+ homers in previous seasons. The fact that his longest over streak during this period was just 1 game suggests any power surge would be short-lived. Late-season fatigue often impacts older players' bat speed and launch angle, both critical components for home run production that appear compromised in Semien's recent performance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Semien's power has completely evaporated with just 0.2 homers per game over 10 contests, creating a massive -0.4 differential against standard lines. The 7-game stretch without an over and consistent under performance suggests this is skill-based regression, not variance. Target unders when lines remain at 0.5+ until this trend definitively breaks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Marcus Semien's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Marcus Semien went 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 2 total homers for a 20.0% over rate. This represents a significant power outage for a player typically expected to hit 0.6 homers per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Marcus Semien Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Semien's home runs with high confidence. His 0.2 average against 0.6 lines creates a -0.4 differential, while the +52.7% under ROI shows clear value. Target unders until this power drought definitively ends.
What's Marcus Semien's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Semien averaged just 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, significantly below the typical 0.6 line. This -0.4 differential represents a massive gap that creates substantial betting value on under props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Semien home run unders when lines remain at 0.5 or higher, particularly in late-season games where fatigue impacts power. Avoid betting after any single-game power surge, as his longest over streak was just 1 game during this stretch.