MacKenzie Gore's strikeout props present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 39.1% of overs across 23 games with a -0.8 average differential below the betting line. The under side shows +16.2% ROI while overs hemorrhage -25.3%, creating a clear statistical edge for disciplined bettors.
Expert Analysis
Gore's strikeout underperformance stems from fundamental command issues that consistently limit his ability to attack the zone aggressively. The 5.35 average against 6.11 lines reveals oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to his reduced strikeout ceiling, likely influenced by his prospect pedigree rather than current reality. His current three-game under streak extends a pattern of inconsistent swing-and-miss stuff that plagued him throughout the sample period. The -0.8 differential isn't marginal variance—it represents a systematic gap between perception and production. Gore's inability to consistently locate his breaking balls forces him into more contact-friendly counts, reducing strikeout opportunities even when his velocity plays up. The 61% under rate demonstrates remarkable consistency in falling short of inflated expectations. Without significant mechanical adjustments or improved command metrics, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression. The longest under streak of five games shows how dramatically Gore can underperform when his control wavers, while even his best stretches rarely sustain the strikeout rates necessary to consistently clear these lines.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Gore's 61% under rate and -0.8 differential create a sustainable edge against consistently inflated lines. Target games where the line sits at 6.0 or higher, particularly when Gore faces patient lineups that work counts. The primary risk involves potential mechanical corrections or favorable matchups against free-swinging teams, but his command profile suggests continued underperformance against these elevated expectations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-19 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is MacKenzie Gore's Strikeouts prop record all games?
MacKenzie Gore's strikeout prop record shows 9 overs and 14 unders across 23 games, hitting just 39.1% of over bets. This translates to a 61% under rate with significantly better returns on the under side.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on MacKenzie Gore Strikeouts all games?
Bet under on Gore's strikeout props. The 61% under rate, -0.8 average differential, and +16.2% ROI on unders create a clear statistical edge against consistently inflated lines that haven't adjusted to his reduced strikeout ceiling.
What's MacKenzie Gore's average Strikeouts all games?
Gore averages 5.35 strikeouts per game against betting lines averaging 6.11, creating a -0.8 differential. This gap represents systematic underperformance rather than random variance, making unders the preferred play in most situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gore strikeout unders when lines reach 6.0 or higher, especially against patient lineups that work deep counts. His command issues become most exploitable in these spots, widening the gap between expectations and realistic production.