Luke Raley has been a consistent under performer in hits props, posting just 18 overs in 48 games (37.5%) while averaging 0.85 hits against a 1.33 line. The 19.3% ROI on unders signals a clear exploitable edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Luke Raley's hits props present one of the clearest under trends in baseball, with his 0.85 average sitting nearly half a hit below the typical 1.33 line. This isn't marginal underperformance — it's systematic. The 37.5% over rate across 48 games suggests books are consistently overvaluing Raley's contact ability, likely influenced by his power potential rather than his actual hit production. The -28.4% ROI on overs demonstrates how punishing betting his hits has been for over backers. Raley's profile fits the classic power-over-contact archetype that creates these edges. His swing-for-the-fences approach generates strikeouts and weak contact, keeping his hit totals suppressed even when he connects for extra bases. The current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, and his longest under streak of six games shows this isn't just recent variance. With no significant splits data to suggest situational improvements, the trend appears stable across all conditions. The 19.3% under ROI indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to Raley's contact limitations, creating ongoing value for disciplined under bettors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Raley's systematic underperformance against hits lines creates a clear edge, supported by his 0.85 average versus 1.33 typical lines. The 19.3% under ROI demonstrates sustained profitability. Best opportunities arise when lines sit at 1.5 hits, maximizing the gap between his actual production and market expectations. Main risk is a hot streak that could temporarily inflate his contact rate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Luke Raley's Hits prop record all games?
Luke Raley's hits prop record stands at 18-30 across 48 games, hitting the over just 37.5% of the time. This represents one of the more reliable under trends in baseball props this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Luke Raley Hits all games?
Bet under on Luke Raley's hits props. His 0.85 average against 1.33 typical lines and 19.3% under ROI create a clear edge. The power-first approach consistently suppresses his contact numbers.
What's Luke Raley's average Hits all games?
Luke Raley averages 0.85 hits per game, sitting 0.48 hits below the typical 1.33 line. This substantial gap between production and market expectations drives the strong under performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Luke Raley hits unders when lines are set at 1.5, maximizing the gap between his 0.85 average and the number. All game situations show consistent underperformance based on available data.