Logan Webb's strikeout props show a compelling 60% over rate (15-10) with a +14.6% ROI backing overs across 25 games. His 5.24 average consistently beats the typical 5.14 line by a meaningful 0.1 strikeouts per start. This represents a clear lean over with solid profit margins.
Expert Analysis
Webb's strikeout over trend stems from his improved command and expanded pitch repertoire that generates more swings and misses than oddsmakers consistently price in. The Giants starter has developed into a legitimate strikeout threat, averaging 5.24 per outing while books typically set his line around 5.14. This 0.1 edge may seem small, but it translates to meaningful value over time. The 60% over rate demonstrates consistency rather than hot streaks, suggesting this isn't variance but a genuine skill improvement that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. Webb's ability to work deeper into games also provides more opportunities to accumulate strikeouts compared to pitchers who exit earlier. The recent two-game under streak actually creates better value, as recreational bettors often overreact to short-term patterns. His longest over streak of 10 games shows the sustainability of this trend when conditions align. The key concern is whether this represents a permanent skill upgrade or if regression will eventually drag his strikeout rate back toward historical norms. However, the sample size of 25 games provides reasonable confidence that this isn't just a hot streak.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Webb's consistent outperformance of his strikeout lines creates legitimate value, particularly when books haven't fully adjusted to his improved strikeout ability. The 60% over rate and positive ROI indicate a sustainable edge rather than random variance. Target overs when he faces lineups with higher strikeout rates or in favorable pitching conditions. The main risk is potential regression if his command wavers or opponents make better contact adjustments.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Logan Webb's Strikeouts prop record all games?
Logan Webb has gone over his strikeout prop in 15 of 25 games (60%) while going under 10 times. This 15-10 over record has generated a +14.6% ROI for over bettors, making it a profitable trend worth tracking.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Logan Webb Strikeouts all games?
Lean over on Webb's strikeout props. His 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI demonstrate consistent value, as he averages 5.24 strikeouts against typical 5.14 lines. The recent under streak may actually provide better entry value.
What's Logan Webb's average Strikeouts all games?
Webb averages 5.24 strikeouts per start compared to his typical line of 5.14, creating a positive 0.1 differential. This small but consistent edge has translated to profitable over betting across his 25-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Webb strikeout overs after short under streaks when books may overadjust lines downward. Also focus on matchups against high-strikeout lineups or favorable weather conditions that enhance his command and swing-and-miss stuff.