Leody Taveras has been a total bases disaster, going just 2-8 O/U in his last 10 games with a brutal 20.0% over rate. Averaging only 1.0 total bases against a 2.7 line creates a massive -1.7 differential that screams systematic underperformance. The under presents clear value with +52.7% ROI backing the trend.
Expert Analysis
Taveras's total bases collapse stems from a perfect storm of offensive struggles that have persisted across multiple weeks. Averaging just 1.0 total bases per game against a 2.7 line represents a 63% shortfall that indicates fundamental issues with his approach or role within the Rangers' lineup. The 20.0% over rate isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance that suggests either declining skills, reduced playing time, or unfavorable matchup patterns. The recent 5-game under streak followed by just one over shows the market hasn't fully adjusted to his diminished production. What's particularly telling is the -61.8% ROI for overs, indicating consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers. This level of underperformance typically persists when driven by legitimate skill regression or role changes rather than temporary slumps. The Rangers may be limiting his opportunities against certain pitcher types or in specific game situations, creating exploitable betting patterns. Without significant lineup changes or a dramatic return to form, this trend appears sustainable through season's end.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Taveras's 1.0 average against a 2.7 line creates a 1.7-base cushion that's too large to ignore, especially with the under delivering +52.7% ROI. The 5-game under streak before his recent over suggests the market remains slow to adjust. Target this prop when the line stays at 2.5 or higher, as his current production level makes anything above 2.0 total bases a mathematical longshot.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Leody Taveras's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Taveras has gone 2-8 O/U on total bases props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of overs. He's averaging only 1.0 total bases per game against lines typically set around 2.7, creating a significant underperformance pattern.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Leody Taveras Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Taveras's 1.0 average against 2.7 lines creates a 1.7-base cushion, and under bets have generated +52.7% ROI while overs lose money at -61.8%. The trend shows no signs of reversing.
What's Leody Taveras's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Taveras is averaging just 1.0 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.7. This -1.7 differential represents a 63% shortfall from market expectations, indicating severe underperformance that creates betting value on unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taveras total bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, as his current 1.0 average makes these mathematically favorable. Avoid when lines drop to 1.5, as that eliminates the cushion that makes this trend profitable.