Lars Nootbaar's Total Bases prop in away games presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 35.9% overs across 39 games with a massive -0.5 differential between his 1.74 average and typical 2.27 lines. The under delivers +22.4% ROI while overs hemorrhage -31.5%, making this a high-conviction fade spot.
Expert Analysis
Nootbaar's road struggles create a systematic pricing inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit. His 1.74 Total Bases average away from Busch Stadium represents a significant drop from what oddsmakers typically price at 2.27, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his home/road split severity. The Cardinals outfielder clearly benefits from familiar surroundings and friendly dimensions at home, while road environments expose his limitations as a contact hitter with modest power. The 10-game under streak within this sample demonstrates how consistently this edge manifests, with only brief over runs breaking the pattern. Nootbaar's approach doesn't translate well to unfamiliar ballparks where timing and comfort zones matter most for fringe power hitters. His 14-25 over/under record isn't just bad luck—it reflects a fundamental mismatch between his road performance capabilities and market expectations. The persistence of this trend across multiple seasons suggests structural rather than temporary factors, making regression less likely than continued value on the under side.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Nootbaar's road Total Bases props offer exceptional value with a -0.5 average differential and +22.4% under ROI. Target lines of 2.0 or higher in hostile road environments, especially against quality pitching staffs. The primary risk is a random hot streak, but the underlying fundamentals strongly favor continued under performance away from St. Louis.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lars Nootbaar's Total Bases prop record away games?
Lars Nootbaar's Total Bases prop record in away games stands at 14-25-0 over/under (35.9% overs) across 39 games from May 2023 through September 2024. His road average of 1.74 Total Bases falls significantly short of typical 2.27 betting lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lars Nootbaar Total Bases away games?
Bet the under on Lars Nootbaar's Total Bases in away games. The data strongly supports this with +22.4% ROI on unders versus -31.5% losses on overs. His 1.74 road average creates consistent value against inflated lines.
What's Lars Nootbaar's average Total Bases away games?
Lars Nootbaar averages 1.74 Total Bases in away games, creating a substantial -0.5 differential versus the typical 2.27 line. This gap represents one of the most reliable under opportunities in baseball props, with the market consistently overvaluing his road performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lars Nootbaar Total Bases unders in road games against quality pitching staffs with lines at 2.0 or higher. Avoid when he's facing weak pitching or in extreme hitter-friendly ballparks, but standard road environments consistently favor the under.