Lars Nootbaar's hits prop has been a consistent under play, going 4-6-0 over the last 10 games with a 40% over rate. He's averaging just 0.8 hits against a 1.4 line, creating a -0.6 differential that's delivered +14.6% ROI on unders. Lean under on his hits props.
Expert Analysis
Nootbaar's hitting struggles over this 10-game sample reflect a player whose contact quality has deteriorated significantly from his baseline expectations. The 0.8 hits per game average against a 1.4 line suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his current form or he's dealing with an underlying issue affecting his bat-to-ball skills. The consistency of this underperformance is striking—he's managed just 4 overs in 10 games, with his current 4-game under streak representing his longest dry spell in the sample. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the magnitude of the differential. A -0.6 gap between performance and expectation indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic issue with his approach or timing. The fact that he's failed to reach even a modest 1.4 hits line 60% of the time suggests either diminished plate discipline, poor pitch recognition, or simply bad luck that's persisted long enough to become exploitable. The Cardinals' late-season positioning may also factor in, as reduced pressure situations could affect his focus or the quality of pitches he sees. Without splits data to identify specific weaknesses, the raw trend becomes the primary indicator, and it's pointing decisively toward continued underperformance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Nootbaar's 0.8 hits per game average creates a significant edge against the typical 1.4 line, and his current 4-game under streak suggests the trend has momentum. The -0.6 differential is substantial enough to overcome typical regression concerns. Target this play when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, but be cautious if books adjust to 1.0 or lower, which would eliminate the mathematical advantage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lars Nootbaar's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Lars Nootbaar has gone 4-6-0 on his hits over/under in the last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. He's averaging 0.8 hits per game against a typical 1.4 line, creating a substantial -0.6 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lars Nootbaar Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Lars Nootbaar's hits props. His 0.8 average against a 1.4 line creates a significant edge, supported by a 4-game under streak and +14.6% ROI on under bets. The trend shows consistency rather than random variance.
What's Lars Nootbaar's average Hits last 10 games?
Lars Nootbaar is averaging 0.8 hits over his last 10 games, which falls 0.6 hits short of the standard 1.4 line. This substantial gap indicates he's consistently underperforming market expectations and struggling with his contact quality.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lars Nootbaar hits unders when the line is set at 1.5 or higher, maximizing the mathematical edge. Avoid betting when books adjust to 1.0 or lower, as this eliminates the advantage that makes this trend profitable.