Lars Nootbaar's home hits props present a clear under opportunity with just 42.4% overs across 33 games. His 0.67 average sits 0.35 hits below the typical 1.02 line, generating +9.9% ROI on unders. The current 4-game under streak reinforces this home ballpark disadvantage.
Expert Analysis
Nootbaar's home hitting struggles reflect a legitimate pattern rather than random variance. His 0.67 hits per home game average consistently falls short of standard 1+ hit lines, creating sustainable value on unders. The -19.0% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently oddsmakers have overvalued his home production. His longest under streak reached 8 games, showing this isn't just a recent development but a persistent characteristic of his home performance. The 42.4% over rate across 33 games provides substantial sample size confidence. Busch Stadium's pitcher-friendly dimensions and Nootbaar's platoon usage patterns likely contribute to this home disadvantage. The current 4-game under streak aligns with his historical 8-game maximum, suggesting the trend remains intact. While regression toward league averages always looms, Nootbaar's specific home environment challenges appear structural rather than temporary. His differential of -0.35 hits versus the line represents significant value that books haven't fully adjusted to recognize.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Nootbaar's home hits props offer consistent under value with his 0.67 average sitting well below standard lines. The +9.9% under ROI across 33 games provides solid evidence of exploitable pricing. Target under bets when lines sit at 1.0 or higher, especially against quality pitching. Main risk involves potential lineup changes or hot streaks that could temporarily inflate his production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lars Nootbaar's Hits prop record home games?
Lars Nootbaar goes over his hits prop in just 14 of 33 home games (42.4% rate). He's averaged 0.67 hits per home game versus a typical 1.02 line, showing consistent underperformance at Busch Stadium.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lars Nootbaar Hits home games?
Bet under on Lars Nootbaar's home hits props. His 0.67 home average sits well below standard lines, generating +9.9% ROI on unders across 33 games while overs lose -19.0%.
What's Lars Nootbaar's average Hits home games?
Lars Nootbaar averages 0.67 hits per home game, significantly below the typical 1.02 line. This -0.35 differential represents one of the larger gaps between performance and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lars Nootbaar under bets at home when lines sit at 1.0 or higher, especially against quality starting pitching. His home environment consistently suppresses his hit production regardless of opponent.