The under has been the play for LaMelo Johnson on Hits props home games. In 168 games, he's gone OVER just 26.2% of the time, averaging 0.82 against a 1.17 line. That's -0.36 below the number—sharp bettors have been fading this prop.

The Numbers: 37-104-27 O/U

26.2% Over Rate
0.82 Avg H
1.17 Avg Line
-0.4 Avg vs Line
-49.9% Over ROI
168 Games
OVER 26.2%
UNDER 73.8%
🚫 Verdict: Smash the Under

Performance vs Line

Line shows prop line, bars show actual performance. Green = Over, Red = Under.

Game Log (Last 0 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result

Showing most recent games. View full game log →

Situational Splits

Home vs Away

Home 26.2% Over (37-104)
Away 0% Over (0-0)

By Line Range

Line ≤ 1.0 36.2% Over
Line > 1.0 13.1% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 20.0% Over (1-4)
Last 10 30.0% Over (3-7)

Why This Trend Exists

Analysis coming soon. This trend shows interesting patterns worth monitoring.

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📉 The Data Says: UNDER on LaMelo Johnson Hits

The UNDER has returned +40.8% ROI in this spot. Shop for the best number.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is LaMelo Johnson's Hits prop record home games?

LaMelo Johnson has gone OVER on hits props in 37 of 168 games (26.2%) home games. The full O/U record is 37-104-27.

Should I bet the OVER or UNDER on LaMelo Johnson Hits?

Based on historical data, the UNDER has been more profitable. The OVER has returned -49.9% ROI while the UNDER has returned +40.8% ROI in this spot.

What's LaMelo Johnson's average Hits home games?

LaMelo Johnson averages 0.82 hits home games, compared to an average prop line of 1.17. That's a differential of -0.4 vs the number.

How reliable is this Hits trend for LaMelo Johnson?

This trend is based on 168 games. With 20+ games, this is a reliable sample size. The data spans from 2020-03-07 to 2024-10-29.

Methodology

This analysis covers 168 games from 2020-03-07 to 2024-10-29. Over/Under results are calculated using closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice on all bets. Pushes are excluded from percentage calculations.

Last Updated: February 04, 2026