Kyren Paris has been a hits prop goldmine for under bettors, going just 1-9 over his last 10 games with a brutal 10.0% over rate. His 0.2 hits per game average sits 1.5 hits below the typical 1.7 line, creating massive value on unders with +71.8% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Paris's hits struggles represent a fundamental offensive breakdown rather than temporary variance. Averaging just 0.2 hits per game against a 1.7 line creates a staggering 1.5-hit daily deficit that suggests either poor plate approach, mechanical issues, or unfavorable matchup scheduling. The 6-game under streak indicates this isn't random fluctuation but a sustained performance decline. What's particularly telling is the extreme nature of this downturn - a 10% over rate across 10 games requires consistent failure to reach base safely. This level of offensive futility typically stems from either injury concerns affecting swing mechanics, confidence issues snowballing after early struggles, or facing a particularly challenging stretch of opposing pitching. The +71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates the market has been slow to adjust to Paris's current form, creating exploitable value. However, regression remains possible if this represents his floor rather than new baseline, especially if underlying metrics like hard contact rate or BABIP suggest better results should follow.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Paris's 0.2 hits per game average creates enormous value against any line above 1.0, while the 6-game under streak suggests sustained offensive struggles rather than bad luck. Target under bets when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as even modest improvement to 0.5 hits per game keeps unders profitable. Main risk is immediate regression if this represents his absolute floor.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Paris's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Paris has gone 1-9 on hits overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10% of over bets. He's averaging only 0.2 hits per game during this stretch, well below typical betting lines around 1.7 hits.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Paris Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Paris's hits props with high confidence. His 0.2 hits per game average and six-game under streak create massive value, especially when lines sit above 1.5 hits per game.
What's Kyren Paris's average Hits last 10 games?
Paris is averaging just 0.2 hits per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 1.5 hits below the typical 1.7 line. This creates enormous value for under bettors in the current market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Paris hits unders when lines are 1.5 or higher, particularly in day games or against quality pitching where his struggles may intensify. Avoid when he faces soft contact-friendly matchups.