Kyle Schwarber's total bases prop shows a massive under bias with just 37.1% overs across 35 games, averaging 1.77 bases against a 1.99 line. The -0.22 differential and devastating -29.1% over ROI make this a clear systematic underperformance. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
Schwarber's total bases struggles stem from his fundamental hitting profile as a three-true-outcomes hitter. His propensity for strikeouts and walks creates feast-or-famine scenarios where he either homers for four bases or contributes minimal total bases through walks or strikeouts. The 1.77 average against a 1.99 line represents a significant 11% underperformance, suggesting oddsmakers consistently overvalue his power upside while underweighting his swing-and-miss tendencies. The current two-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern, having recorded a devastating five-game under streak at one point. This isn't random variance—it's structural. Schwarber's approach prioritizes launch angle and exit velocity over contact, leading to binary outcomes that rarely hit the middle range where total bases props typically land. The 20% under ROI demonstrates clear market inefficiency, likely driven by casual bettors overvaluing his home run reputation. With no significant split advantages identified, this appears to be a consistent edge across all game situations. The persistence of this trend over 35 games provides substantial confidence that this represents genuine alpha rather than short-term deviation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Schwarber's swing-and-miss profile creates systematic underperformance in total bases props, evidenced by the 37.1% over rate and -0.22 average differential. The market consistently overprices his power ceiling while underweighting strikeout risk. Target unders when the line sits at 2.0 or higher, as his binary outcomes rarely produce the middle-range totals needed to clear elevated numbers consistently.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 15.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyle Schwarber's Total Bases prop record all games?
Kyle Schwarber's total bases record shows 13 overs and 22 unders across 35 games, producing a 37.1% over rate. His average of 1.77 total bases falls 0.22 short of the typical 1.99 line, creating a -29.1% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyle Schwarber Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Kyle Schwarber's total bases props. His 37.1% over rate and 20% under ROI demonstrate clear systematic underperformance. The market consistently overprices his power while underweighting his strikeout-heavy approach that limits base accumulation.
What's Kyle Schwarber's average Total Bases all games?
Kyle Schwarber averages 1.77 total bases per game, falling 0.22 short of the typical 1.99 line. This 11% underperformance reflects his three-true-outcomes hitting style that produces either big numbers or minimal contribution with little middle ground.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kyle Schwarber total bases unders when the line sits at 2.0 or higher. His binary hitting outcomes rarely produce the middle-range totals needed to clear elevated numbers, making higher-lined games particularly valuable betting opportunities.