Kyle Schwarber's home run props present a compelling under opportunity with just a 17.6% over rate across 34 games. His 0.24 average sits 0.3 homers below the typical 0.5 line, generating exceptional +57.2% ROI on unders. This represents a strong systematic edge against inflated power expectations.
Expert Analysis
Schwarber's home run drought reflects a fundamental disconnect between his reputation and current production. The slugger's 0.24 average represents a massive 52% shortfall from the standard 0.5 line, indicating oddsmakers consistently overvalue his power output. This isn't a small sample anomaly — 34 games provide substantial evidence of sustainable underperformance relative to betting expectations. The streak data reveals telling patterns: his longest over streak maxes at just one game, while under runs extend to seven games, suggesting feast-or-famine tendencies heavily skewed toward famine. The -66.3% ROI on overs demonstrates how brutally expensive backing Schwarber's power has been, while under bettors enjoy exceptional profitability. This trend persists because casual bettors overweight Schwarber's career power numbers and name recognition, creating persistent line inflation. The five-game under streak indicates current form aligns with the broader pattern. Without meaningful splits data to identify favorable spots, the blanket approach favors unders across all game situations, making this one of the more reliable systematic plays available.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Schwarber's 17.6% over rate and massive -0.3 line differential create exceptional systematic value on unders. The +57.2% ROI demonstrates consistent profitability over meaningful sample size. Target this play across all game situations given the lack of meaningful splits variation. Primary risk involves potential hot streaks, but his maximum one-game over streak suggests limited upside volatility.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyle Schwarber's Home Runs prop record all games?
Schwarber's home run props show a dominant 6-28-0 under record across all games, hitting just 17.6% overs. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records available, with unders cashing at an exceptional 82.4% rate over 34 tracked games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyle Schwarber Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Schwarber's home run props with high confidence. His 0.24 average sits 0.3 homers below typical lines, generating +57.2% ROI on unders. The systematic edge appears sustainable given the substantial 34-game sample size and consistent underperformance patterns.
What's Kyle Schwarber's average Home Runs all games?
Schwarber averages 0.24 home runs per game across all situations, sitting 0.3 homers below the standard 0.5 line. This massive 52% shortfall from betting expectations creates the foundation for exceptional under value and explains the dominant 82.4% under rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Schwarber home run unders consistently across all game situations given the lack of meaningful performance splits. The systematic edge appears strongest during current form, with five consecutive unders suggesting alignment between recent performance and broader underperformance trends.