Kyle Schwarber's hits props show a clear under bias with just 42.9% overs across 35 games, averaging 0.83 hits against a 0.9 line. The -18.2% ROI on overs versus +9.1% on unders creates a compelling systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Schwarber's hits data reveals a persistent pattern that defies his power reputation. The 0.83 average against a 0.9 line represents a meaningful 7.8% gap that has held steady across 35 games spanning multiple seasons. This isn't variance—it's structural. The Philadelphia slugger's approach prioritizes power over contact, leading to lower hit totals despite his offensive value. His 15-20 over-under record demonstrates books consistently overvaluing his hit frequency, likely influenced by his name recognition and home run production. The balanced 5-game streaks in both directions show this isn't streaky—it's consistent underperformance against inflated lines. Most telling is the ROI spread: losing nearly 20 cents on every over dollar while gaining 9 cents on unders. This suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to Schwarber's true hit profile. The trend persists because casual bettors see his offensive numbers and assume hits follow, but Schwarber's value comes from extra-base hits and walks, not singles. Books exploit this perception gap by setting lines that favor their action distribution rather than true probability.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Schwarber's systematic underperformance against his hits line creates a profitable edge that the market hasn't corrected. The 0.83 average versus 0.9 line provides consistent value, especially when books inflate numbers based on his power reputation. Primary risk is a hot streak that could temporarily inflate his contact rate, but the underlying approach suggests regression to this lower mean.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyle Schwarber's Hits prop record all games?
Kyle Schwarber has gone over his hits prop in just 15 of 35 games (42.9%), with 20 unders. His 0.83 hits average falls short of the typical 0.9 line by 0.07 hits per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyle Schwarber Hits all games?
Bet under on Kyle Schwarber's hits props. His 42.9% over rate and +9.1% under ROI create a clear edge. The market consistently overprices his hit frequency based on power reputation.
What's Kyle Schwarber's average Hits all games?
Kyle Schwarber averages 0.83 hits per game across this 35-game sample, compared to his typical 0.9 line. This 0.07-hit deficit represents a 7.8% gap that favors under betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kyle Schwarber hits unders when lines sit at 0.5 or 1.5, where his power-first approach creates the biggest edge. Avoid during hot streaks when contact rates temporarily spike above baseline.