Kris Bryant's total bases prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over the past 10 games with a brutal -1.5 average differential below the line. The Colorado first baseman is averaging only 1.1 total bases against a typical 2.6 line, creating exceptional under value with +52.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Bryant's total bases collapse reflects a perfect storm of declining performance and inflated market expectations. The 1.1 average against a 2.6 line represents a staggering 57.7% gap, suggesting oddsmakers haven't adequately adjusted to his current form. This isn't just a cold streak - Bryant's power metrics have cratered, with his inability to reach even modest base totals indicating fundamental swing issues or injury concerns. The four-game under streak demonstrates consistency in this downturn, while the single-game over maximum shows how rare his productive nights have become. Colorado's offensive struggles compound the issue, as Bryant faces more difficult counts and fewer RBI opportunities. The -61.8% over ROI screams market inefficiency, particularly given Coors Field's reputation inflating expectations. However, regression risk looms large - Bryant's career pedigree suggests this level of futility is unsustainable. The key question is whether his physical condition or mechanical issues represent a longer-term decline or a correctable slump. Given the sample size and severity of underperformance, the data suggests continued under value exists, but bettors must monitor for any signs of adjustment in either Bryant's approach or the betting market's pricing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bryant's 1.1 total bases average creates significant line value when oddsmakers set props around 2.6. The four-game under streak and 20% over rate indicate a sustainable edge, particularly given Colorado's offensive struggles. However, regression risk prevents high confidence - Bryant's talent suggests eventual improvement. Target unders when lines exceed 2.0, but monitor closely for any performance uptick.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kris Bryant's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Bryant's total bases prop went 2-8 over the last 10 games, hitting just 20% overs. He averaged 1.1 total bases against typical lines around 2.6, creating a -1.5 differential that devastated over bettors with -61.8% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kris Bryant Total Bases last 10 games?
Lean under on Bryant's total bases props. His 1.1 average against 2.6 lines creates clear value, supported by four straight unders and +52.7% under ROI. However, regression risk exists given his career talent level.
What's Kris Bryant's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Bryant averaged just 1.1 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical prop lines around 2.6. This -1.5 differential represents a 57.7% gap below market expectations, indicating severe underperformance relative to oddsmaker pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bryant total bases unders when lines exceed 2.0, especially in road games where Coors Field inflation doesn't apply. Avoid during hot weather or against weak pitching where his power could suddenly resurface and create regression.