Kris Bryant's Total Bases props at Coors Field present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 26.3% of overs across 19 home games. With an average of 0.95 total bases against a 1.76 line, Bryant consistently falls short by nearly a full base per game. The under offers strong value with +40.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Bryant's offensive struggles at home despite playing in baseball's most hitter-friendly environment. Averaging just 0.95 total bases against a 1.76 line represents an alarming 46% shortfall that defies Coors Field's reputation. This massive differential suggests either chronic injury issues or a fundamental disconnect between Bryant's current ability and market expectations. The 10-game under streak within this sample indicates sustained poor performance rather than random variance. What makes this trend particularly compelling is its persistence at Coors Field, where even struggling hitters typically see inflated numbers due to altitude and spacious dimensions that turn routine fly balls into doubles. Bryant's inability to capitalize on these advantages points to deeper mechanical or physical issues. The -49.8% ROI on overs demonstrates how dramatically the market has overvalued his production, while the +40.7% under ROI shows consistent profitability for contrarian bettors. With sportsbooks still pricing Bryant based on past reputation rather than current reality, this creates a sustainable edge for disciplined under backers.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bryant's 0.95 average at Coors Field creates significant value against inflated lines, particularly when set at 1.5+ total bases. The ideal betting spot comes when books price him above 1.75, maximizing the gap between expectation and reality. Main risk is potential lineup changes or improved health, but the sustained nature of this trend suggests structural rather than temporary issues.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kris Bryant's Total Bases prop record home games?
Bryant's Total Bases record at home stands at 5-14-0 over/under (26.3% overs) across 19 games. This represents one of the most lopsided prop trends for any regular player at Coors Field, where offensive numbers typically inflate significantly.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kris Bryant Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Bryant's Total Bases at home games. His 0.95 average creates substantial value against standard 1.5-1.75 lines, with the under producing +40.7% ROI while overs lose nearly 50% of invested capital over this extended sample.
What's Kris Bryant's average Total Bases home games?
Bryant averages 0.95 total bases in home games, dramatically below the typical 1.76 line. This 0.8-base differential represents a 46% shortfall, creating consistent value for under bettors despite playing in baseball's most offensive-friendly ballpark environment.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bryant Total Bases unders when lines are set at 1.75 or higher at Coors Field. Avoid betting after extended rest periods or against weak pitching staffs where variance could temporarily spike his production above sustainable levels.