Kerry Carpenter's home run production at Comerica Park presents a compelling under opportunity, with just 4 overs in 30 home games (13.3% over rate) and an average of 0.13 home runs versus the typical 0.5 line. This systematic underperformance has generated a +65.5% ROI on unders, making it one of the strongest fade trends in baseball.
Expert Analysis
Carpenter's home run struggles at Comerica Park reflect both venue characteristics and his offensive profile limitations. The spacious dimensions of Detroit's ballpark, particularly the 345-foot foul territory and deeper power alleys, suppress home run rates for left-handed hitters like Carpenter who tend to pull the ball. His 0.13 home runs per game at home represents a massive 74% underperformance versus the standard 0.5 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for his venue-specific limitations. The streak data reveals the persistence of this trend, with Carpenter enduring a 13-game home run drought at home - his longest stretch without going yard. This isn't merely bad luck; it's a systematic issue where his swing plane and approach don't translate effectively to Comerica's pitcher-friendly environment. The -74.5% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently betting the over has been a losing proposition, while the under's +65.5% return indicates sustainable value. With only 4 home runs in 30 home games spanning over a year, this represents one of the most reliable venue-specific trends in current MLB prop betting.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Carpenter's systematic home run struggles at Comerica Park have created a rare edge where the under hits 86.7% of the time with exceptional ROI. The venue's dimensions fundamentally suppress his power output, and oddsmakers haven't adequately adjusted the line. Target this under in all conditions, as the sample size and consistency make this one of the strongest prop bets available.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Kerry Carpenter props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kerry Carpenter's Home Runs prop record home games?
Kerry Carpenter is 4-26-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 13.3% of his overs with an average of 0.13 home runs per game versus the typical 0.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kerry Carpenter Home Runs home games?
Bet the UNDER on Carpenter's home runs at Comerica Park. The under has hit 86.7% of the time with +65.5% ROI, making it one of baseball's strongest prop trends.
What's Kerry Carpenter's average Home Runs home games?
Carpenter averages 0.13 home runs per home game, significantly below the standard 0.5 line. This -0.37 differential represents a 74% underperformance versus typical market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Carpenter home run unders consistently at Comerica Park regardless of matchup. The venue's dimensions create a systematic edge that has persisted across 30 games spanning multiple seasons.