Ke'Bryan Hayes has been an under bettor's dream over his last 10 games, going 1-9-0 with just a 10.0% over rate. His 1.1 total bases average sits 2.3 bases below typical lines, creating an 8-game under streak that screams systematic value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of offensive regression for Ke'Bryan Hayes, whose total bases production has cratered over this 10-game sample. Averaging just 1.1 total bases per game against lines typically set around 3.4 represents a massive 67.6% shortfall that goes beyond normal variance. This level of sustained underperformance suggests underlying issues—whether mechanical adjustments, opposing pitcher preparation, or simple cold streak amplification. The 8-game under streak indicates books haven't fully adjusted their pricing models to reflect Hayes's current offensive state. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency—Hayes isn't alternating good and bad games, but rather showing sustained struggles that create predictable betting value. The -80.9% ROI on overs demonstrates how punishing this cold stretch has been for optimistic bettors, while the corresponding +71.8% under ROI shows the systematic profit available. Pirates hitters often face challenging divisional matchups and pitcher-friendly conditions that can extend offensive slumps. Hayes's defensive-first profile means his bat was never his calling card, making these prolonged struggles less surprising than they would be for a primary offensive contributor. The question becomes whether this represents his true talent level or an extended rough patch.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Hayes's 1.1 total bases average represents such a dramatic departure from typical pricing that books appear slow to adjust. The 8-game under streak and -2.3 differential create systematic value that persists until his approach or luck dramatically changes. Target unders when lines remain above 2.5, as his current form suggests even modest totals represent challenging hurdles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ke'Bryan Hayes's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Ke'Bryan Hayes has gone 1-9-0 on total bases props over his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of overs. He's currently riding an 8-game under streak with only one over in the entire sample, making this one of the most lopsided recent trends in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ke'Bryan Hayes Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Ke'Bryan Hayes total bases props with high confidence. His 1.1 average sits 2.3 bases below typical lines, creating systematic value. The 8-game under streak and +71.8% under ROI demonstrate consistent profit opportunity until his offensive form dramatically improves.
What's Ke'Bryan Hayes's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Hayes is averaging just 1.1 total bases over his last 10 games compared to lines typically set around 3.4. This -2.3 differential represents a 67.6% shortfall that goes well beyond normal variance, indicating either a severe cold streak or adjusted talent level.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hayes total bases unders when lines remain above 2.5, particularly in pitcher-friendly matchups or divisional games. His current 1.1 average makes even modest totals challenging. Avoid when lines drop below 2.0 as books may have finally adjusted to his current form.