Ke'Bryan Hayes presents one of the most reliable under plays in baseball for home runs at home, hitting just 2-26-0 over the total with a devastating 7.1% over rate. His 0.07 home run average sits 86% below the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Hayes's home run futility at PNC Park reflects both his contact-oriented approach and Pittsburgh's pitcher-friendly dimensions. The third baseman has managed just two home runs across 28 home games since May 2023, producing an average that sits 0.43 runs below standard lines. This isn't variance—it's profile. Hayes prioritizes contact over power, ranking in the bottom quartile of exit velocity among qualified hitters. PNC Park's spacious foul territory and 325-foot corners favor his spray approach but suppress his already limited power upside. The 12-game under streak represents sustainable performance rather than regression candidate, as Hayes has shown no meaningful power development. His swing mechanics remain unchanged, focusing on gap-to-gap contact that rarely translates to home run production. The consistency is remarkable—even in favorable conditions like day games or against struggling pitching, Hayes rarely elevates balls with authority. This creates a systematic edge where books consistently shade lines toward his career norms rather than his home-specific reality. The sample size provides confidence, spanning multiple seasons and various lineup positions, suggesting this trend reflects genuine skill-based limitations rather than temporary struggles.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Hayes's 7.1% over rate at home represents one of the most reliable trends in baseball props, driven by legitimate skill-based factors rather than variance. The ideal conditions are any home game where the line sits at 0.5, offering maximum value against his 0.07 average. The primary risk is a rare mistake pitch that Hayes turns around, but his track record suggests even favorable counts rarely produce home run swings.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ke'Bryan Hayes's Home Runs prop record home games?
Hayes is 2-26-0 over/under on home run props in home games, hitting just 7.1% overs with a -86.4% ROI on over bets. He's averaging 0.07 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ke'Bryan Hayes Home Runs home games?
Bet under with high confidence. Hayes's 7.1% over rate at home creates one of baseball's most reliable prop edges, driven by his contact-oriented profile and PNC Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions suppressing power.
What's Ke'Bryan Hayes's average Home Runs home games?
Hayes averages 0.07 home runs per home game, sitting 0.43 runs below the standard 0.5 line. This massive 86% differential reflects his contact-first approach rather than temporary struggles or variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Any home game offers value, but target contests where the line sits at 0.5 for maximum edge. Day games and matchups against struggling pitching still favor unders given Hayes's consistent contact-over-power approach.