Jurickson Profar's total bases prop at home presents a clear under opportunity with a dismal 40.4% over rate across 47 games. His 1.81 average falls 0.8 bases short of typical lines, generating +13.7% ROI on unders while overs lose -22.8%. The data strongly favors betting under on Profar's total bases in San Diego.
Expert Analysis
Profar's home struggles with total bases stem from a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and his actual production at Petco Park. His 1.81 average represents consistent underperformance against lines typically set around 2.6, creating an exploitable gap that has persisted across nearly 50 games. The -0.8 differential isn't marginal variance—it's a systematic pattern reflecting Profar's specific challenges in his home environment. Petco Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions likely suppress his extra-base hit frequency, while the pressure of home expectations may contribute to a more conservative approach. The current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long trend rather than representing an anomaly. Most tellingly, the 19-28 record shows remarkable consistency in failing to reach inflated totals. While regression toward the mean is always possible, Profar's track record suggests books haven't adequately adjusted their home lines downward. The +13.7% under ROI demonstrates this isn't just about winning bets—it's about finding genuine value. His longest under streak of seven games shows the trend can extend significantly, while even his longest over streak of eight games represents less than the sample's under dominance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Profar's total bases props at home offer exceptional value with nearly 60% under success rate and positive ROI. The 0.8-base deficit between his average and typical lines creates a mathematical edge that books haven't corrected. Target unders when lines exceed 2.5 bases, as his home environment consistently suppresses extra-base production. Main risk is potential lineup changes or injury affecting sample relevance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Total Bases prop record home games?
Profar's total bases prop record at home games is 19-28-0 over/under, hitting the over just 40.4% of the time across 47 games. This represents a significant underperformance that has created consistent value on the under side of his props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Profar's total bases at home games. His 40.4% over rate and +13.7% under ROI make this a high-confidence play. The 0.8-base gap between his 1.81 average and typical lines around 2.6 creates exploitable value.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Total Bases home games?
Profar averages 1.81 total bases in home games, falling 0.8 bases short of the typical 2.61 line. This substantial differential has persisted across 47 games, indicating a systematic underperformance rather than short-term variance in his home production.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Profar total bases unders when lines exceed 2.5 bases at Petco Park. His home environment consistently suppresses extra-base production, making elevated lines particularly vulnerable. Avoid during hot streaks, but the three-game under streak suggests prime conditions.