Jurickson Profar's total bases away games presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball props, going under in 32 of 40 games (20.0% over rate). His 1.3 average sits 1.4 bases below typical 2.7 lines, creating exceptional under value with +52.7% ROI. This is a premium fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Profar's road struggles create a massive disconnect between market perception and reality. His 1.3 total bases average away from Petco Park represents a fundamental shift from his home production, where favorable dimensions and familiar conditions boost his extra-base power. The 14-game under streak within this sample reveals consistent market overvaluation, as oddsmakers fail to properly adjust for Profar's road limitations. His approach changes dramatically in unfamiliar environments, leading to more conservative at-bats and reduced barrel contact. The -1.4 differential versus typical lines indicates books are pricing him based on overall season numbers rather than this glaring split. This isn't random variance—it's a systematic pattern where Profar's contact-heavy approach translates poorly to road ballparks with different sight lines, backgrounds, and dimensions. The 20% over rate across 40 games provides robust sample size confidence, while the +52.7% under ROI demonstrates the market's persistent mispricing. Most concerning for over bettors is the trend's acceleration, with recent games showing no signs of regression toward his season-long numbers.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Profar's total bases away games represents premium contrarian value with the market consistently overvaluing his road production. Target unders when lines hit 2.5 or higher, especially in pitcher-friendly venues. The primary risk is a random multi-hit game breaking the pattern, but the 80% success rate and exceptional ROI justify aggressive under betting in road spots.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Total Bases prop record away games?
Profar's total bases record in away games is 8-32-0 over/under, meaning the under has hit in 80% of his 40 road games. This 20% over rate represents one of the most lopsided prop trends in baseball this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Profar's total bases in away games with high confidence. His 1.3 road average creates consistent value against typical 2.7 lines, producing +52.7% ROI. Target unders especially when lines reach 2.5 or higher.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Total Bases away games?
Profar averages just 1.3 total bases in away games, sitting 1.4 bases below the typical 2.7 line. This massive differential represents the market's failure to properly price his significant home/road split in offensive production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Profar total bases unders in any away game, particularly in pitcher-friendly ballparks or when facing quality starters. Lines of 2.5+ offer premium value, while his current 8-game under streak suggests continued market mispricing.