Jurickson Profar's total bases prop presents one of the season's most reliable under plays, hitting just 31.0% overs across 87 games with a devastating -1.1 average differential. Currently riding six straight unders, this trend shows remarkable consistency for systematic under betting.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story of a player whose production consistently falls short of market expectations. Profar's 1.57 average total bases against a 2.65 line creates a massive -1.1 differential that suggests either persistent market mispricing or fundamental changes in his offensive profile. The 31.0% over rate across 87 games provides substantial sample size credibility, while the +31.7% under ROI demonstrates real profit potential. His current six-game under streak, part of a season-long pattern that includes a 10-game under run, indicates this isn't random variance but systematic underperformance. The lack of split data actually strengthens the case, suggesting consistency across all conditions rather than situational weakness. Profar's struggles likely stem from reduced power output or changes in his approach that the market hasn't fully adjusted for. The persistence of this trend through nearly a full season suggests structural rather than temporary issues, making regression less likely than continued underperformance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Profar's total bases prop offers exceptional value with a 69.0% under hit rate and proven profitability. The -1.1 differential combined with current form creates an ideal systematic betting opportunity. Primary risk is potential market adjustment, but the trend's persistence suggests continued edge availability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Total Bases prop record all games?
Profar's total bases prop record shows 27 overs and 60 unders across 87 games, hitting just 31.0% overs. This translates to a 69.0% under success rate with significant profit potential at +31.7% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Profar's total bases props with high confidence. The 69.0% under hit rate, -1.1 average differential, and current six-game under streak create exceptional value for systematic under betting.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Total Bases all games?
Profar averages 1.57 total bases per game against a typical 2.65 line, creating a massive -1.1 differential. This gap suggests either persistent market mispricing or fundamental changes in his offensive production.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Profar total bases unders consistently across all game situations. The lack of split data suggests uniform underperformance, making every game a potential betting opportunity regardless of matchup or venue conditions.