Jurickson Profar's home run production at Petco Park has been historically weak, going under in 79.6% of home games (10-39-0 record). The Padres outfielder averages just 0.2 home runs per home game against a typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.3 differential. This represents a clear UNDER lean with strong historical backing.
Expert Analysis
Jurickson Profar's home run struggles at Petco Park reflect both ballpark suppression and his contact-oriented approach. The veteran outfielder has managed just 10 home runs across 49 home games, a rate that suggests either poor fortune or systematic factors working against him. Petco Park's dimensions and marine layer historically suppress power numbers, particularly for left-handed hitters like Profar who must overcome the deeper left field dimensions. His 20.4% over rate indicates this isn't variance but a persistent pattern tied to his hitting profile. Profar's approach emphasizes contact and gap power over raw strength, making him particularly vulnerable to ballpark effects. The current three-game under streak extends his longest under streak to nine games, suggesting oddsmakers may still be overvaluing his power potential at home. The -61% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market has mispriced his home power output. With no recent uptick in power metrics and Petco's continued suppression effects, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Profar's 0.2 home run average against typical 0.5 lines creates consistent value on the under, supported by a dominant 79.6% under rate. Target this play when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, particularly in day games when Petco's marine layer is most pronounced. The main risk is a hot streak inflating short-term power numbers, but his contact-first approach suggests sustainability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Home Runs prop record home games?
Profar's home run prop record in home games is 10-39-0, hitting the over in just 20.4% of games. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends among regular players, with unders cashing nearly four times more often than overs at Petco Park.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Home Runs home games?
Bet the UNDER on Profar's home runs in home games. His 0.2 average against typical 0.5 lines creates consistent value, backed by a dominant 79.6% under rate and +52% ROI. This is a high-confidence systematic edge worth exploiting regularly.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Home Runs home games?
Profar averages 0.2 home runs per home game, creating a massive -0.3 differential against the typical 0.5 line. This gap represents the market consistently overvaluing his power potential at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, where his contact approach struggles to generate elevation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Profar home run unders during day games at Petco when the marine layer is strongest, and when lines are set at 0.5 or higher. Avoid betting after road power surges that might temporarily inflate his home lines beyond sustainable levels.