Jurickson Profar's home run production away from Petco Park presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 37 of 40 road games (92.5% under rate). With just three homers in 40 away contests versus a typical 0.5 line, this represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Profar's road home run struggles stem from multiple converging factors that create a sustainable betting edge. His swing mechanics and approach appear fundamentally mismatched for road environments, where he loses the familiar sight lines and atmospheric conditions of Petco Park. The 0.07 average against 0.5 lines represents a massive -0.43 differential that suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his road power deficiency. This isn't simply bad luck—Profar's 23-game homerless streak on the road indicates a mechanical or mental block that transcends normal variance. His contact-oriented approach generates solid batting averages away from home but lacks the elevation needed for consistent power production. The persistence of this trend through 40 games across different ballparks, weather conditions, and opposing pitchers suggests structural rather than circumstantial factors. Road games eliminate whatever environmental advantages Profar enjoys at home, whether that's familiarity with wind patterns, background, or simply comfort level. The 11-game current streak aligns with his season-long pattern, making regression less likely than continued underperformance. Books appear slow to adjust these lines downward, creating ongoing value for under bettors willing to capitalize on this clear market inefficiency.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Profar's 92.5% under rate on road home runs represents one of baseball's most reliable trends, driven by fundamental swing mechanics that don't translate to power away from Petco Park. Target this prop aggressively in road games, especially against quality pitching where his contact approach becomes even less likely to generate elevation. The primary risk is a random cheapie homer, but the 40-game sample size and underlying mechanics suggest continued underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Home Runs prop record away games?
Profar has gone 3-37-0 on home run overs in road games, hitting the under in 92.5% of away contests. He's averaged just 0.07 homers per road game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.43 differential that represents exceptional under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Home Runs away games?
Bet the UNDER aggressively on Profar's road home run props. His 92.5% under rate across 40 games represents one of baseball's most reliable trends, driven by swing mechanics that don't translate to power away from Petco Park.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Home Runs away games?
Profar averages 0.07 home runs per road game compared to the standard 0.5 line, creating a -0.43 differential. This massive gap between production and expectation has generated consistent under value throughout the 2024 season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Profar's home run unders in all road games, particularly against quality starting pitching where his contact approach becomes even less likely to generate the elevation needed for power production in unfamiliar ballpark environments.