Jurickson Profar has been ice-cold at the plate, going under his hits prop in 8 of 10 games with just a 20% over rate. Currently averaging 0.5 hits against a typical 1.5 line, creating a massive -1.0 differential. The under presents strong value with +52.7% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Profar's hitting struggles represent a legitimate cold streak rather than variance, evidenced by his dismal 0.5 hit average over this 10-game sample. The veteran outfielder has managed just five total games hitting his prop, with his current five-game under streak highlighting consistent offensive futility. This isn't merely bad luck – Profar's approach at the plate appears compromised, whether due to mechanical issues, opposing pitcher adjustments, or late-season fatigue. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overvaluing his recent performance, while sharp money has capitalized on unders for a healthy +52.7% return. His longest over streak during this period lasted just one game, demonstrating the consistency of his struggles. The Padres' veteran has shown no signs of breaking out of this funk, with each subsequent game reinforcing the trend. Late-season baseball often exposes players dealing with accumulated wear, and Profar's declining plate discipline suggests this isn't a temporary blip. The market hasn't fully adjusted to his diminished production, creating continued value on the under.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Profar's five-game under streak and 0.5 hit average create exceptional value against standard 1.5 lines. The trend shows remarkable consistency with 80% under rate and strong ROI metrics. Target games where he faces quality pitching or in day games where his struggles have been most pronounced. Main risk is variance correction, but his mechanical issues suggest this cold streak has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Profar has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his hits prop in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He's currently on a five-game under streak, his longest during this stretch, with only one single-game over streak.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Hits last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Profar's 0.5 hit average against 1.5 lines offers exceptional value, supported by an 80% under rate and +52.7% ROI. His mechanical struggles show no signs of immediate correction.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Hits last 10 games?
Profar is averaging just 0.5 hits over his last 10 games compared to the standard 1.5 line, creating a massive -1.0 differential. This represents his worst sustained hitting stretch, well below his seasonal baseline performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Profar unders when he faces quality starting pitching or in day games where his struggles have been most pronounced. Avoid betting when he faces struggling pitchers or in prime-time spots where variance could strike.