Jurickson Profar's hits prop away from Petco Park presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40.0% overs across 40 games with a massive -0.5 differential from the standard 1.5 line. The Padres outfielder averages only 0.93 hits per road game, creating consistent value on unders with a 14.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Profar's road struggles in 2024. His 0.93 hits per away game average sits significantly below the typical 1.5 line, creating a structural edge that persists across a meaningful 40-game sample. This isn't a small sample fluke—it represents half a season of consistent underperformance away from home. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells the story of books potentially overvaluing Profar's road hitting ability, while under bettors have capitalized with a solid 14.6% return. His current five-game under streak reinforces the pattern, matching his season-long trend of road futility. What makes this particularly compelling is the consistency—Profar isn't alternating hot and cold stretches that would suggest variance. Instead, he's demonstrating a clear split between home and road performance that books haven't fully adjusted for. The 16-24 under record across 40 games provides the sample size needed for confidence, while the -0.5 differential from market expectations creates the mathematical edge that separates winning bettors from the crowd.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Profar's road hitting deficiency is too pronounced to ignore, with a -0.5 differential from standard lines creating consistent value. Target this prop when he's facing quality road pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks to maximize edge. The primary risk is a potential hot streak regression, but 40 games of data suggests this is a legitimate skill-based split rather than variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Hits Prop Lines
Compare Jurickson Profar props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jurickson Profar's Hits prop record away games?
Profar's hits prop record in away games is 16-24-0 over/under, hitting just 40.0% overs across 40 games. He averages 0.93 hits per road game, well below the standard 1.5 line, creating a -0.5 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jurickson Profar Hits away games?
Bet UNDER on Profar's hits props in away games with high confidence. His 0.93 road average creates a -0.5 edge against typical lines, while under bets have generated a 14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% on overs across 40 games.
What's Jurickson Profar's average Hits away games?
Profar averages 0.93 hits per away game in 2024, sitting 0.5 hits below the standard 1.5 line. This significant differential has created consistent value for under bettors, who've cashed 60% of the time across his 40 road contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Profar hits unders when he faces quality road pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His five-game under streak and season-long road struggles make away games the optimal time to fade his hitting props with confidence.