Juan Soto's hits props have been brutally cold, going under in 8 of his last 10 games with a devastating -61.8% ROI on overs. Averaging just 1.2 hits against typical 1.9 lines, Soto is currently riding a three-game under streak. This represents a strong under lean with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Juan Soto's recent hitting struggles represent a dramatic departure from his typically elite contact skills. The 20% over rate across 10 games signals a fundamental shift in his approach or opposing pitcher strategy. The -0.7 differential between his 1.2 average and standard 1.9 lines suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his current form, creating consistent under value. The five-game under streak within this sample indicates sustained issues rather than random variance. Soto's plate discipline remains elite, but his barrel rate and hard contact percentage likely declined during this stretch. The timing coincides with late-season fatigue and increased scouting reports as teams prepare for October. However, regression risk looms large given Soto's proven track record and natural talent. His career contact rates suggest this downturn is unsustainable long-term, though the sample size provides enough statistical significance to warrant attention. The Yankees' offensive struggles during portions of this period may have contributed to fewer favorable hitting situations and increased pressure situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 80% under rate and significant negative differential create clear value on Soto under bets, particularly when lines remain at 1.5+ hits. Target games against quality pitching where his recent struggles are most likely to continue. Primary risk is immediate regression to his career norms, as elite hitters like Soto rarely sustain such poor contact rates for extended periods.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Juan Soto's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Juan Soto has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his hits props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. He's averaging 1.2 hits per game against typical lines of 1.9, creating a -0.7 differential that heavily favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Juan Soto Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Juan Soto's hits props based on his 8-2 under record and -0.7 average differential. The 80% under rate with -61.8% over ROI creates clear value, though monitor for potential regression given his elite track record.
What's Juan Soto's average Hits last 10 games?
Juan Soto is averaging 1.2 hits per game over his last 10 contests, significantly below the typical 1.9 line. This -0.7 differential represents a substantial gap that has consistently favored under bettors with strong returns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Juan Soto under bets when facing quality starting pitching or when lines remain at 1.5+ hits. His recent 80% under rate suggests continued value, particularly in games where opposing teams deploy their best arms against the Yankees' lineup.