Josh Naylor's home run prop presents one of the most lopsided betting opportunities in baseball, going under in 98 of 114 games (86.0% under rate) with a catastrophic -73.2% ROI on overs. His 0.17 average sits 66% below the standard 0.5 line, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Josh Naylor's power production relative to market expectations. Averaging just 0.17 home runs per game against a consistent 0.5 line creates a massive 0.33 differential that has persisted across 114 games spanning nearly two seasons. This isn't a small sample anomaly—it represents fundamental market mispricing of Naylor's true power output. The 23-game under streak within this sample demonstrates how rarely Naylor reaches the yard, while his current 5-game under streak suggests the pattern remains intact. What makes this particularly compelling is the consistency of the failure rate. Going over just 14% of the time indicates this isn't about occasional cold streaks but rather a systematic overvaluation of his home run frequency. The +64.1% ROI on unders reflects how dramatically the market has mispriced this prop throughout the sample period. Naylor's contact-oriented approach and Cleveland's pitcher-friendly Progressive Field likely contribute to this power suppression, but the key insight is that oddsmakers haven't adequately adjusted the line to reflect his actual production patterns.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Josh Naylor's home run under represents elite betting value with an 86% hit rate and +64.1% ROI over 114 games. The 0.33 differential between his actual production and the betting line is unsustainable from a bookmaker perspective, yet has persisted across nearly two full seasons. Target this prop in any conditions, as even his best power spots rarely produce the 0.5 threshold.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Naylor's Home Runs prop record all games?
Josh Naylor's home run prop record across all games shows 16 overs and 98 unders in 114 total games, producing a 14.0% over rate and 86.0% under rate with a devastating -73.2% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Naylor Home Runs all games?
Bet UNDER on Josh Naylor's home runs with high confidence. His 86% under rate and +64.1% under ROI across 114 games represents one of baseball's most profitable prop betting opportunities with exceptional consistency.
What's Josh Naylor's average Home Runs all games?
Josh Naylor averages 0.17 home runs per game compared to the standard 0.5 betting line, creating a massive -0.33 differential that has persisted across 114 games spanning nearly two seasons of consistent under performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Josh Naylor's home run under in any conditions given the 86% success rate. The prop shows remarkable consistency regardless of matchup, making it suitable for any game situation with sustained profitability.