Josh Jung's home run props present a compelling under opportunity with just 18.2% overs across 11 games and a brutal -0.4 average differential. Currently riding seven straight unders, Jung has cleared his line only twice all season, generating massive 56.2% ROI for under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Jung's home run struggles trace to a combination of swing changes and injury recovery that have fundamentally altered his power profile. The third baseman's 0.18 average against a 0.59 line reveals books haven't adequately adjusted to his diminished pop, creating persistent value on unders. His current seven-game under streak isn't fluky variance but reflects genuine mechanical issues that limit his ability to turn on pitches with authority. The -65.3% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose power hasn't translated from his prospect days, while the 56.2% under ROI demonstrates how profitable this fade has become. Jung's approach has become more contact-oriented, sacrificing the launch angle needed for consistent home run production. Without significant swing adjustments or a hot streak that defies his underlying metrics, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression. The Rangers' offensive environment hasn't helped, as Jung often faces quality pitching that exploits his current swing path vulnerabilities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jung's 18.2% over rate and massive -0.4 differential create clear value on unders, especially with books slow to adjust lines downward. The seven-game under streak reflects genuine power decline rather than bad luck. Primary risk is a sudden mechanical breakthrough or favorable matchup run that could temporarily spike his power numbers, but the underlying data strongly favors continued under results.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Jung's Home Runs prop record all games?
Jung's home run prop record stands at 2-9-0 over/under across 11 games, hitting just 18.2% overs. He's averaging 0.18 home runs per game against a typical 0.59 line, creating a significant -0.4 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Jung Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Jung's home run props. His 18.2% over rate and -0.4 average differential create clear value, while under bets have generated 56.2% ROI. The current seven-game under streak reflects genuine power decline, not temporary variance.
What's Josh Jung's average Home Runs all games?
Jung averages 0.18 home runs per game compared to his typical 0.59 line, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This gap shows books haven't adequately adjusted to his diminished power, with Jung clearing his number only twice in 11 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jung's home run unders consistently, as his mechanical issues create persistent value regardless of matchup. Focus on games where his line remains at 0.5 or higher, as books continue overvaluing his power despite clear evidence of decline.