Jose Altuve's home run props present one of the sharpest under trends in baseball, hitting just 7.5% of overs across 106 games with an 8-98-0 record. His 0.08 average sits 0.43 runs below typical lines, creating massive value on unders with +76.5% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The Altuve home run under represents a fundamental shift in his offensive profile that books haven't fully adjusted to. At 34, the former MVP has transformed from a power threat averaging 24 homers from 2016-2019 to a contact-first hitter managing just 8 homers across 106 tracked games. His 0.08 home run rate translates to roughly one homer every 12-13 games, yet sportsbooks consistently price him around 0.5 lines suggesting expectation of one every two games. This disconnect stems from name recognition and past performance bias. The streak data tells the story - Altuve's longest over streak spans just 2 games while his longest under reached 24 consecutive. His current 5-game under streak isn't anomalous but typical. Age-related decline in exit velocity and launch angle, combined with Houston's pitcher-friendly dimensions at Minute Maid Park, reinforce this trend. The 85.6% loss rate on overs reflects not variance but structural change. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating sustained value. Without significant swing changes or health improvements, this profile should persist through his age-35 season.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Altuve's power decline is real and persistent, not a cold streak requiring regression. The 92.5% under rate across 106 games reflects fundamental offensive changes that sportsbooks haven't properly priced. Target unders when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, especially in pitcher-friendly parks. Main risk is random variance over small samples, but the trend's consistency suggests minimal concern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jose Altuve's Home Runs prop record all games?
Altuve's home run prop record shows 8 overs and 98 unders across 106 games, hitting just 7.5% of over bets. This represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jose Altuve Home Runs all games?
Bet the under on Altuve home run props with high confidence. His 92.5% under rate and +76.5% ROI on unders reflects genuine power decline, not temporary variance requiring correction.
What's Jose Altuve's average Home Runs all games?
Altuve averages 0.08 home runs per game, significantly below typical lines around 0.5. This 0.43 differential creates substantial value betting unders when books overprice his power potential.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Altuve home run unders when lines are 0.5 or higher, particularly in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His consistent under performance makes timing less critical than line shopping for maximum value.