Jorge Soler's home total bases props present a historically dominant fade opportunity with an 88.2% under rate across 17 games. His 1.29 average sits 1.4 bases below typical lines, generating massive -77.5% over ROI versus +68.5% under returns. This represents a clear systematic under play.
Expert Analysis
The Jorge Soler home total bases trend reveals a player fundamentally misaligned with his prop pricing at Truist Park. Averaging just 1.29 total bases per home game while lines typically sit around 2.68 creates a staggering 1.4-base deficit that suggests either park factors, approach changes, or matchup dynamics consistently working against Soler's power output. The 12-game under streak within this sample indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Atlanta's home environment may be suppressing Soler's extra-base hit production through dimensions, weather patterns, or opposing pitcher usage that books haven't fully adjusted for. The 88.2% under rate across nearly three months of data provides exceptional sample size confidence. Most concerning for over bettors is the complete absence of any meaningful hot streaks, with just a two-game over run representing his longest positive stretch. This suggests Soler's home struggles run deeper than temporary slumps, potentially involving mechanical adjustments or comfort level issues that persist regardless of opponent quality or game situation.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jorge Soler's home total bases props offer premium fade value with his 1.29 average creating consistent line value against 2.68+ props. The 88.2% under rate and +68.5% under ROI across 17 games represents systematic mispricing. Target this play in any home matchup regardless of pitcher, as the trend transcends individual game factors. Primary risk involves potential hot streak variance, but the 12-game under streak suggests remarkable consistency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jorge Soler's Total Bases prop record home games?
Jorge Soler's home total bases record shows 2-15-0 over/under across 17 games, hitting just 11.8% of overs. He averages 1.29 total bases per home game, well below typical prop lines around 2.68 bases.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jorge Soler Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Jorge Soler's total bases in home games with high confidence. His 88.2% under rate and +68.5% under ROI across 17 games represents one of the strongest systematic edges available.
What's Jorge Soler's average Total Bases home games?
Jorge Soler averages 1.29 total bases in home games, creating a massive 1.4-base deficit versus typical prop lines around 2.68. This differential represents the core value driving consistent under results.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jorge Soler total bases unders in any Atlanta home game regardless of matchup specifics. The trend shows remarkable consistency across different opponents, making every home appearance a potential betting opportunity.